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Shadows of the West over Georgia: who stands to gain from the protests?

World Materials 29 November 2024 20:11 (UTC +04:00)
Shadows of the West over Georgia: who stands to gain from the protests?
Elchin Alioghlu
Elchin Alioghlu
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The European Parliament’s recent resolution rejecting Georgia’s parliamentary election results and calling for a rerun has sent political shockwaves through Tbilisi. Backed by 444 Members of Parliament, with 72 dissenting and 82 abstaining, the resolution underscored widespread electoral violations that, according to Brussels, render the results unacceptable for international recognition. The European Parliament urged new elections within a year under an improved electoral framework with independent oversight.

At the heart of the resolution lies a recommendation for personal sanctions against prominent Georgian leaders, including Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze, Speaker of Parliament Shalva Papuashvili, and "Georgian Dream" party chairman Irakli Garibashvili. The call also includes sanctions against judges accused of handling politically motivated cases and oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, alleged to have eroded Georgia’s political stability and steered the nation closer to Russia.

Moreover, the European Parliament proposed that the European Commission and EU Council revisit Georgia’s visa-free travel arrangement, suggesting its possible suspension. European lawmakers argue that Georgia’s current leadership is driving the country toward domestic political instability and alienation from its democratic partners.

In a defiant response, Prime Minister Kobakhidze announced a suspension of negotiations with the EU until 2028 and a rejection of EU grants, doubling down on the government’s narrative of sovereignty and self-reliance. Despite this, he reaffirmed Georgia’s goal of EU membership by 2030, stating,
"Our duty is to make Georgia part of the European family. However, relations with the EU must remain strictly bilateral and must not become a tool of pressure."

A Nation Divided

According to Georgia’s Central Election Commission, the ruling "Georgian Dream" party secured 53.93% of the vote, while four opposition parties, including the "Coalition for Change" (11.03%) and the "Unity – National Movement" (10.16%), also entered Parliament. Yet, the opposition has categorically rejected the results, citing widespread irregularities. The United States and the EU have voiced concerns, demanding investigations into alleged abuses, including voter intimidation, bribery, and misuse of administrative resources. Both Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU High Representative Josep Borrell specifically pointed to an uneven playing field for political parties and the chilling impact of Georgia’s controversial "foreign agents" law.

The contested elections have fractured Georgia politically and diplomatically, deepening domestic divides and straining ties with its Western allies. The growing rift between Georgian authorities and the international community has escalated tensions, casting a shadow over Georgia’s European aspirations.

Protests Erupt Across the Nation

In the wake of the elections, spontaneous protests erupted outside the Georgian Parliament. Initial estimates placed the crowd at 2,000–3,000 demonstrators on Tbilisi’s iconic Rustaveli Avenue and adjacent Freedom Square, but numbers quickly swelled to tens of thousands. Protests soon spread beyond the capital, with roads blocked near "Georgian Dream" offices in Kutaisi and demonstrations reported in Batumi, Gori, and Zugdidi. The flashpoint for these protests? The government’s decision to postpone EU membership negotiations until 2028.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported 43 arrests for minor infractions and disobedience to police orders, alongside injuries to 32 officers, 13 of whom required surgery. Journalists covering the unrest were not spared, with several sustaining injuries.

As the protests continued into the night, scenes of arson, property damage, and clashes with police unfolded along Rustaveli Avenue. Protesters reportedly hurled glass bottles and fireworks at law enforcement, prompting the use of tear gas, smoke grenades, and water cannons. By 2 a.m., special forces had been deployed to disperse the crowds. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, joining demonstrators at Parliament earlier in the evening, questioned special forces about whom they were serving—a moment that highlighted the widening chasm between the nation’s leadership and its people.

A Red Alert in Parliament

Starting November 29, Parliament implemented a "red security level," restricting access to the building to personnel designated by parliamentary leadership based on the assessed threat level.

Commenting on the unrest, Vladimir Bozhadze, First Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, maintained that Georgia remains committed to its EU path, dismissing the protests as baseless. Yet, the growing public dissatisfaction suggests mounting challenges for the government.

Strategic Pragmatism or Isolation?

The Georgian government’s decision to pause EU negotiations until 2028 marks a watershed moment in the nation’s foreign policy. While officials frame the move as a defense of national sovereignty, critics see it as a dangerous pivot away from Georgia’s historical trajectory toward European integration.

The "Georgian Dream" party’s decision to halt EU talks and reject European grants signals a broader recalibration in Georgia’s international posture. At a press briefing, Kobakhidze cast the move as a response to Brussels’ attempts to use EU integration as leverage, declaring,
"Integration into the EU should not be presented as an act of charity. Georgia, with its ancient Christian heritage and unique cultural identity, has much to contribute to Europe."

This rhetoric underscores a strategic pivot, but it comes with risks. Suspending EU negotiations deepens Georgia’s isolation from its Western partners, potentially jeopardizing vital economic and diplomatic ties. The opposition, led by figures like former Defense Minister Giorgi Baramidze, has branded the move a "historic betrayal," warning of dire consequences for Georgia’s economic stability and national identity.

The Balancing Act Between East and West

Georgia’s leadership appears determined to chart a middle path, balancing its European ambitions with economic pragmatism. With Russia serving as a key trading partner—accounting for significant wine exports and billions in tourism revenues—Tbilisi has little room to maneuver without risking economic fallout. Yet, aligning too closely with Moscow could alienate Western partners and erode public trust domestically.

The decision to delay EU negotiations reflects a broader dilemma: how to reconcile the competing demands of economic stability, geopolitical strategy, and public expectations. Georgia’s balancing act between East and West is becoming increasingly precarious, with the stakes higher than ever in a rapidly shifting global order.

As Tbilisi seeks to navigate these turbulent waters, the question remains: Can Georgia maintain its independence and stability while keeping its European dream alive, or will it be forced to choose sides in a polarized world?

Protecting Sovereignty or Resisting Pressure?

In the wake of Georgia's suspension of EU negotiations and rejection of European grants, Georgian authorities have offered several key justifications for this bold move:

Opposition to Foreign Interference. Tbilisi has framed the European Parliament’s resolution and accompanying pressures as direct attempts to undermine Georgian sovereignty. From demands to review election results to threats of sanctions and discussions surrounding the visa-free regime, the Georgian government views Brussels’ actions as undue meddling in its domestic affairs.

Pursuit of Equal Partnership. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has emphasized that Georgia is unwilling to accept a subordinate role in its relationship with Europe. He has called for a partnership grounded in mutual respect, rejecting ultimatums and economic coercion.

Reducing Financial Dependence. The refusal to accept EU grants signals Georgia’s aspiration for independent economic policy. Tbilisi may be using this as a strategic pivot to strengthen financial autonomy, with an eye toward diversifying partnerships globally.

A Diplomatic Tightrope for Tbilisi

Georgia’s announcement comes against the backdrop of a tough European Parliament resolution, which outlined several high-stakes challenges for Tbilisi:

Non-Recognition of Election Results. By questioning the legitimacy of Georgia’s October 26 parliamentary elections, Brussels has cast a shadow on the country’s international reputation.

Sanctions on the Table. The European Parliament has urged the European Commission to consider imposing sanctions on Georgian officials, a move that could destabilize bilateral ties.

Visa-Free Travel at Risk. Revisiting Georgia’s visa-free regime with the EU introduces significant uncertainty for Georgian citizens who rely on free movement across Europe for business and personal opportunities.

Tbilisi’s Defiant Stance

In response, Tbilisi has rejected these measures outright, asserting that European integration must be based on mutual respect, not external dictates. Georgian officials have characterized the EU’s demands as a direct challenge to national sovereignty, a stance they believe is critical for preserving the country’s independent trajectory.

Yet this firm response brings inherent risks. Economically, Georgia could face significant repercussions, and its European integration ambitions may now confront even greater challenges.

Isolation or New Alliances? Georgia at a Crossroads

The decision to suspend negotiations and reject EU grants has undoubtedly deepened the rift between Tbilisi and Brussels. Several potential consequences of this choice merit attention:

Worsening Political Crisis. The specter of revisiting Georgia’s visa-free status with the EU could incite domestic unrest, particularly among younger citizens and business communities who actively benefit from European privileges.

International Isolation. Sanctions against Georgian officials could weaken Tbilisi’s standing in global diplomacy and strain relationships with key Western partners.

Pivoting to New Players. Rejecting European grants could signal Georgia’s readiness to strengthen ties with alternative global actors, such as China, Turkey, or Russia, thereby reshaping its geopolitical alignment.

The "Georgian Dream" party’s approach appears as much a declaration of independence as it is a challenge to Brussels. While this defiance plays well domestically, it carries economic and political risks that could strain an already precarious balance.

Political Motives and Constitutional Constraints

Tbilisi’s decision has also been interpreted as a defensive maneuver amid growing EU pressure. However, the suspension of talks until 2028 may reflect legal and structural realities: Georgia’s Constitution, under Article 78, mandates that state institutions do "everything possible to achieve membership in the EU and NATO."

Despite formal adherence to Euro-Atlantic goals, skepticism regarding the real feasibility of EU membership is growing. Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili has underscored this complexity, noting that joining the EU could require Georgia to impose visa restrictions on countries like Russia—whose tourists alone contribute $4–$4.5 billion annually to the Georgian economy. Similarly, EU membership could necessitate revisiting free trade agreements, risking significant impacts on Georgian exports, including wine, nearly 70% of which is destined for Russia.

Economic Risks and Pragmatism in Georgia’s Foreign Policy

Georgia’s economic dependence on Russia remains a central factor in shaping its foreign policy choices. Key pillars such as tourism and agricultural exports play a vital role in sustaining the economy, leaving little room for drastic shifts.

Economic Risks

Disrupted Trade Relations. Aligning with Europe could force Georgia to adopt sanctions against Russia, potentially jeopardizing the 60% of wine and mineral water exports currently directed to Russian markets.

Tourism Decline. Russian tourists contribute billions annually to Georgia’s economy. Severing ties with this market could destabilize state revenues and exacerbate socio-economic inequalities.

Caught Between East and West: Georgia’s Strategic Dilemma

Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili’s recent statement, "Georgia is no more ready to join the EU than the EU is to accept it," underscores the nuanced position of the Georgian government. European integration, while aspirational, entails not only sweeping political reforms but also economic risks that are difficult for a fragile economy to bear.

Balancing its aspirations for European integration with the realities of economic dependence on Russia reflects Georgia’s pragmatic approach. By avoiding overtly anti-Russian moves, such as implementing sanctions, the government seeks to maintain economic stability while keeping diplomatic channels open.

Georgia’s cautious balancing act between East and West grows increasingly precarious. As geopolitical tensions rise globally, Tbilisi’s ability to navigate this turbulent landscape will require deft political maneuvering and significant economic resilience.

Whether this suspension of negotiations represents a momentary recalibration or a more profound shift in Georgia’s foreign policy remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the stakes are higher than ever. Georgia’s political and economic future—and its place in the broader European order—hangs in the balance, with repercussions that extend far beyond its borders.

Growing Rift with Brussels

The widening divide between Georgia and the European Union underscores the inherent tension between Brussels’ expectations and Tbilisi’s domestic priorities. The EU has consistently pushed for deep structural reforms and greater alignment with its anti-Russian policies—demands that clash with Georgia’s internal economic and political realities.

These divergences reveal a fundamental disconnect: while Georgia aspires to European integration, the immediate costs of meeting Brussels’ criteria often outweigh perceived benefits. For Georgian authorities, preserving economic stability has emerged as a more immediate priority than accelerating integration into European structures.

Opposition: Accusations of Betrayal and Calls for Protests

Georgia’s opposition has seized on the government’s decision to suspend EU negotiations, framing it as a deliberate pivot toward Moscow. Giorgi Baramidze, former Defense Minister and leader of the "United National Movement," labeled the move a “historic betrayal” and called for nationwide protests. Baramidze and other opposition leaders argue that turning away from European integration jeopardizes not only Georgia’s economic future but also its historical identity as a pro-Western state.

This rhetoric has amplified internal divisions, fueling public unrest and creating fertile ground for mass demonstrations. The opposition accuses the government of using “economic pragmatism” as a pretext to entrench authoritarian governance and tighten control over the political landscape.

Striving for Balance

The decision to pause EU negotiations reflects a broader strategic calculation: Georgia’s desire to retain freedom of maneuver in a world increasingly polarized between East and West. Tbilisi’s leaders appear intent on avoiding entanglement in the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between Brussels and Moscow.

However, this balancing act comes with high stakes. Political isolation from Europe risks undermining Georgia’s credibility with Western partners and curtailing critical foreign investment needed for sustainable economic growth. On the flip side, Georgia’s deep economic and cultural ties to Russia remain a crucial factor in shaping its policy choices.

As the global power struggle intensifies, Georgia’s position between East and West grows more precarious. The challenge lies in maintaining a strategic equilibrium without alienating key allies or destabilizing its domestic landscape.

Redefining Relations with Brussels

The suspension of EU negotiations until 2028 signals more than temporary pragmatism—it marks a deliberate reevaluation of Georgia’s relationship with the European Union. By rejecting what it perceives as external overreach, Tbilisi is asserting its sovereignty and demonstrating a willingness to chart a more independent path, even at the cost of strained relations with Brussels.

Yet, this stance comes with profound risks. To sustain such a course, Georgia’s leadership will need to display greater political dexterity and bolster economic resilience. The country faces a critical question: Can Georgia navigate its position at the crossroads of Europe and Russia without forfeiting the trust of its partners or endangering its internal stability?

What remains clear is that Georgia is entering a transformative phase, where its choices will reverberate far beyond its borders. Whether this pivot strengthens Georgia’s independence or exacerbates its vulnerabilities will depend on the delicate balance Tbilisi manages to strike in the years to come.

Baku Network

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