Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb. 24
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
US-Russia deal on a partial truce in Syria will not be effective and long lasting, Michael Rubin, the former Pentagon advisor on Middle East, and scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) believes.
"The basic problem is that neither the Russians nor the Americans have such control over their respective proxies as to get them to obey," Rubin told Trend.
The US and Russia announced plans for a 'cessation of hostilities' in Syria that would take effect on Saturday but exclude groups such as the IS (ISIS, ISIL or Daesh) and al Qaeda's Nusra Front, a flaw immediately highlighted by Syrian rebels.
Rubin believes the deal rather reflects wishful thinking.
"I'd be surprised if any pause in the fighting lasts more than a day or two and, rather than seek peace, the multiple sides will just dig in and resupply," he said.
Rubin doesn't believe that the Syrian government and Syria's armed opposition will agree to a cessation of hostilities.
"There is a greater chance that the Pope will convert to Judaism or that Jamaica will win the most medals at the next Winter Olympics," he said.
He also doesn't believe the deal can help to bring peace to Syria.
"Secretary of State John Kerry is agreeing to anything to be able to say he has a deal. But, the Syrian opposition aren't basing their tactical decisions on Kerry's inflated ego," Rubin said.
So far, the talks between Syrian government and opposition groups have not yielded any positive results, with both sides blaming each other for the collapse of the talks.
Over 250,000 people have died and at least 11 million have been displaced in Syria, since the crisis broke out in 2011.