China’s exports growth unexpectedly fell in March, the first drop since February last year, raising questions about the health of one of the economy’s key growth drivers even as trade tensions rapidly escalate with the United States, Reuters reports.
March import growth beat expectations, however, suggesting its domestic demand may still be solid enough to cushion the blow from any trade shocks. That left China with a rare trade deficit for the month, also the first drop since last February.
The latest readings on the health of China’s trade sector follow weeks of tit-for-tat tariff threats by Washington and Beijing, sparked by U.S. frustration with China’s massive bilateral trade surplus and intellectual property policies, that have fueled fears of a global trade war.
China’s March exports fell 2.7 percent from a year earlier, lagging analysts’ forecasts for a 10.0 percent increase, and down from a sharper-than-expected 44.5 percent jump in February, which economists believe was heavily distorted by seasonal factors.
For the first quarter as a whole, however, exports still grew a hearty 14.1 percent.
Some analysts had expected a pullback in March exports following an unusually strong start to the year, when firms stepped up shipments before the long Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February. That scenario did not alter their view that global demand remains robust.
But a stronger currency could also be starting to erode Chinese exporters' competitiveness. The yuan CNY=CFXS appreciated around 3.7 percent against the U.S. dollar in the first quarter this year, on top of a 6.6 percent gain last year.
No hard timeline has been set by either Washington or Beijing for the actual imposition of tariffs, which leaves the door open to negotiations and a possible compromise which could limit the damage to both sides and other trade-reliant economies.
But analysts said the trade threats may already be having an impact on exporters’ activity.
With the threat of tariffs hanging over nearly a third of China’s exports to the United States, economists at Nomura say its companies may have front-loaded shipments early this year before any measures kick in.
China’s exports to the U.S. rose 14.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, while imports rose 8.9 percent.
That sent its quarterly trade surplus with the U.S. surging 19.4 percent to $58.25 billion, though the March reading narrowed to $15.43 billion from $20.96 billion in February.
China’s total aluminum exports in March rose to their highest since June, just as the United States imposed tariffs on imports of the metal and steel on March 23.
“We believe export growth will slow due to yuan appreciation and rising trade tensions. But the solid global growth outlook may provide some buffer. China’s import could be more resilient than export growth in our view as China has pledged to increase imports,” said Lisheng Wang, an economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.