An Ukrainian Political Analyst Says President Satisfied with Situation with Prohibiting Ukrainian Constitutional Court to Work and Make Decisions
Ukraine, Kiev / corr . Trend Z.Novosvitsky / Mikhail Pogrebinsky , a political analyst, Director of the Kiev Centre for Political and Conflict Studies, has said that Ukraine's President, Victor Yuschenko , establishes a situation that prohibits the Constitutional Court of the Country to work and make corresponding decisions.
Commenting the dismissal of the Constitutional Court's Judges by the President, the expert told Trend that the logic is evident - not to allow to the Constitutional Court to make. "I think that the President has taken such a step, since Mr. Yuschenko realizes that the decision will not be in his favor and his Order concerning the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada ( Ukraine's Parliament) will be recognized as an unconstitutional one," he said.
According to the political analyst, the President will put pressure on the Government in the future to allocate finances for holding the pre-term parliamentary elections. In addition, the political analyst does not rule the possibility to file criminal cases for the non-fulfillment of the Presidential Decrees and Orders. Mr. Pogrebinsky considers that even if the Constitutional Court may make a decision on non-constitutionality of the Presidential Decree, this decision will not be recognized by the President due to the present possibility to state a quorum in the Constitutional Court of the Country.
However, the PACE (Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe) recommendations indicates that all conflicting and disputing parties should fulfill the decision of the Constitutional Court. "Therefore, the President does not allow the Court to make its decision, since he may find himself in a very difficult situation and may be forced to fulfill the decision which will be taken by the Court. Therefore, it is evident he is not ready for any compromise," Mr. Pogrebinsky said. "One can imagine that the President will do his best to "push" his position forward, as if inclining the opposite side by his body-checks. These will certainly not be tanks, however it is evident fact that Mr. Yuschenko will try to use the State Public Prosecutor's, as he has already been using the Ukrainian Security Service for these purposes", added the political analyst.
Regarding the further development of the existing situation, the political analyst considers that those who want to hold the parliamentary elections in June, 2007, will hold them legally. When it becomes evident to the President, then the both parties (the President and opposition) may find any compromise to postpone the elections, but only on the conditions, which will satisfy Mr. Yuschenko . Such a situation, in Mr. Pogrebinsky opinion, will promote the further destabilization in the country, including destabilization in the economy of the country.
"It might also occur that under pressure of such circumstances and situation, the key opposition Party of Regions would play a game, the President initiate. Then, the conflict will be settled but temporarily. The parliamentary elections may be held even in June, 2007, as the President wants it. However, I think that this alternative is less probable, but it may happen. Mr. Yuschenko is doing his best to "obtrude" his own Premier-Minister by thrusting the coalition between the Our Ukraine Party and the Party of regions," said Mr. Pogrebinsky . He considers that the President will not appoint new Judges of the Constitutional Court of the Country instead of those who were dismissed by him, since they will not able to swear an oath (in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation, they are to do it in the Verkhovna Rada ) , if to take into consideration that the situation with prohibiting the Constitutional Court of the Country to fulfill its duties is favourable to him.
Touching upon the enactment made by the Ukrainian Parliament on April 30 concerning holding the presidential and parliament elections in the Country until December 9, 2007, the Ukrainian political analyst considers it as a "step for discussions and possible negotiations between the disputing parties".
According to him, everything will depend on the further development of the situation. He even did not rule out that the President might accept such conditions. "However, I think that his team will not allow the President to take this step," said Mr. Pogrebinsky .
In addition, the political analyst considers it is virtually impossible to fulfill this Parliament's enactment. In order to hold pre-term presidential elections, it is necessary first to move corresponding amendments to the Constitution of the Country, even if the President agrees with it. "There are so many factors that make it impossible. I think it is virtually impossible to put it into life," concluded the Ukrainian political analyst.
Notably, by his Decrees issued on May 1-2, the Ukrainian President dismissed the Judges of the Constitutional Court of the Country, Susanne Stanik and Valery Pshenichniy for "violation the oath they swore"
The dismissal of the both Judges occurred just during the Constitutional Court's considering the Decrees issued by the President concerning the dissolution of Parliament of the Country and holding pre-term parliamentary elections in Ukraine. Representatives of the Ukraine's parliament's majority have already doubted concerning the legitimacy of the decisions taken by the Presidents toward the judges of the Constitutional Court of the Coutry .