How long will Moscow-Ankara crisis last?

How long will Moscow-Ankara crisis last?

Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 1.

By Rufiz Hafizoglu - Trend:

Russia, while trying not to repeat previous mistakes it made in Iraq and Libya, is actually making the new ones by aggravating relations with Turkey.

According to the Russian authorities, even if Turkey apologizes for the incident which occurred November 24, 2015, the resumption of old relations is out of the question.

Of course, it does not worth waiting for Ankara's apology over the incident.

The incident is not political in nature for Turkey. According to the country's authorities, as opposed to Russia, Ankara has not closed the diplomatic channels to discuss the crisis with Moscow.

But it is obvious that as opposed to Ankara, Russia more tightly reacts to the incident and closed all political channels.

Turkey considers Moscow's action as an effort to use the incident to strengthen its presence in Syria.

One can say that Moscow has achieved its goal.

Turkey ambiguously considers an incident with Russia. According to some analysts, as Moscow, Ankara plays a strategic role in future Syria, in particular, in the struggle for the distribution of zones of influence.

Currently, there is an opinion that, sooner or later, Russia and Turkey will launch a military conflict that would lead to the beginning of World War III.

But it is forgotten that the big countries are not involved in an open military confrontation.

The war is expected to be at the economic and energy levels.

Each side claims that breaking off the economic relations will affect only the opponent and the opponent will greatly suffer.

Turkey says Russians won't find an alternative to the warm shores of Antalya, but this is not true. Israel, for example, could easily replace the Turkish coast.

Russia, meanwhile, has been hinting at that Turkey will soon face "Siberian frosts", but apparently President Erdogan has already found an alternative to Russian gas - the gas from the Kurdish administration in Iraq.

Earlier, the Kurdish administration declared its readiness to supply gas to Turkey in case if Russia to stops supplying its gas.

But a number of Turkish analysts don't think that Moscow will to stop supplying gas - they see such a step as "hara-kiri" in energy sector of Russia.

There is also an opinion in Turkey that Russia's weak economy is the reason for Moscow's tough policy against Ankara. Turkish media outlets say Russia needs a crisis to enable the growth of oil prices on the world market.

Turkey has also got an alternative to Russia in the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.

As Erdogan previously said, if Russia doesn't construct Akkuyu, then others will come to build it. The other countries Erdogan is talking about are France and Japan.

Meanwhile, it can be said that relations between Ankara and the EU have moved forward in the wake of deterioration of relations between Russia and Turkey.

But here too not everything is all right. After the EU announced that a visa-free regime can be started with Turkey in 2016, authorities in Madrid stated that in this case Spain may exit the EU.

So far it is not known how long will there be the crisis in relations between Turkey and Russia, but this crisis will be solved as soon as Ankara and Moscow determine the future fate of Syria.

---

Rufiz Hafizoglu is the head of Trend Agency's Arabic news service, follow him on Twitter: @rhafizoglu

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