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Türkiye: Europe’s last shot at survival

Türkiye Materials 27 February 2025 20:15 (UTC +04:00)
Türkiye: Europe’s last shot at survival
Elchin Alioghlu
Elchin Alioghlu
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Europe is waking up from a long illusion. The once rock-solid alliance with the U.S. is cracking at the seams. Washington no longer sees strengthening the Old Continent as a priority—it’s laser-focused on its own interests, leaving Europe stranded with a brutal choice: keep clinging to an American safety net that’s growing thinner by the year, or finally take control of its own destiny, find new partners, and build a fresh security strategy.

These hard truths can’t be ignored anymore. Brussels is beginning to grasp a grim reality: the old security model is dead. America is no longer a reliable protector—it’s just another player using Europe as a bargaining chip in its political games. And just as the EU stumbles, unsure of its next move, a new force emerges on the horizon—Türkiye.

Unlike Europe, Ankara doesn’t hesitate. It acts. It leads. It offers alternatives. And now, Türkiye is holding out a lifeline to a Europe that’s drowning in its own indecision. Could this be the moment when the EU finally stops playing by someone else’s rules and starts charting its own course?

Recent developments at the UN have thrown the European Union into a full-blown identity crisis. The West is disoriented, its political elite blindsided by a harsh realization: Europe no longer controls its own fate. Its security depends entirely on the U.S.—a country that seems less and less invested in its future.

America’s vote at the UN against Ukraine’s territorial integrity was a wake-up call Brussels never expected. European leaders are scrambling for answers. Some blame Trump’s unpredictability, though his disdain for Zelenskyy was obvious throughout his campaign. Others suspect a growing Washington-Moscow connection—an alliance that’s been simmering beneath the surface for years, with Trump openly admiring Putin. But the truth cuts much deeper.

This crisis has ripped off the mask of European arrogance. For decades, EU leaders viewed Russia as weak and themselves as untouchable. But war, like a brutal science experiment, tests theories in the real world. And Europe’s theory of its own strength has failed spectacularly. The war in Ukraine has exposed the EU’s military irrelevance. Europe has lost its power—and with it, its ability to call the shots.

Reality is setting in, and it’s painful.

Europe is now facing what psychologists call an identity disintegration. If it can’t defend itself, what is its place in the world? If Russia can wipe it out in a single strike, what’s left of its ambitions, its self-image? The EU is like a trauma patient, reeling from the shock, desperately searching for a new sense of purpose. But there’s nowhere to run—it’s trapped in its own weakness.

Just look at Macron, Meloni, Ursula von der Leyen. Their silence, their vague, panicked statements—they don’t know what to say because they don’t know what to do. Europe is only now coming to terms with the fact that Russia has 6,000 nuclear warheads and that no amount of economic sanctions will ever change that equation. Their world has collapsed, and they’re paralyzed.

So what’s next?

Psychoanalysis teaches that the first step to recovery is accepting reality. And the reality is this: the European Union, as we knew it, is gone. It has collapsed politically. If it wants to survive, it must reinvent itself. It must accept its own weakness. Only by doing so can it carve out a new future.

But can it? Or will Europe remain stuck in this state of shock while the world moves on without it?

The warning signs have been flashing for years, but now the alarms are deafening. Across Europe, voices are growing louder: America is no longer a reliable ally. Washington has become blatantly self-serving, focused solely on its own geopolitical interests while increasingly turning a blind eye to Europe’s needs.

Brussels is now at a crossroads. Should it continue betting on a transatlantic partner that no longer prioritizes the Old Continent? Or should it look elsewhere for security, economic stability, and geopolitical influence?

Türkiye is offering a way forward.

Ankara isn’t just another country—it’s a force. An 85-million-strong nation with immense economic and military power. It controls some of the world’s most vital strategic routes, fields one of NATO’s most formidable armies, and plays a pivotal role in regional energy politics.

Yet, for decades, the EU has stubbornly ignored this reality, repeatedly shutting Türkiye out of full membership.

Now, Europe is out of time. It needs a new plan. And Türkiye might just be the only viable option left.

Europe Won’t Survive Without Türkiye

Today’s European Union is a fading powerhouse, a club struggling to maintain relevance on the world stage. Its economic strength is dwindling, its demographic crisis is deepening, and its military capabilities are so weak that, without NATO, Europe wouldn’t be able to defend itself. Türkiye, on the other hand, is on the rise. Over the last 20 years, its GDP has quadrupled, and its industrial production has skyrocketed by 140%.

But Türkiye’s real strength lies in its geopolitical significance. Positioned at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, Türkiye holds the keys to Europe's security. Without Ankara, the EU cannot control migration flows, cannot influence energy corridors, and cannot effectively counter threats from global players like Russia, Iran, or even China.

Since the Cold War, Europe has been entirely dependent on American military power. Today, the U.S. is shifting its focus to Asia, seeing China—not Russia—as its primary competitor. European leaders understand this reality: Washington no longer sees defending Europe as a top priority.

So what’s the solution? Türkiye.

With over 450,000 troops, the Turkish military is the second-largest in NATO after the U.S. Its defense industry is booming, producing advanced drones, armored vehicles, and missile defense systems. Unlike most European nations, Ankara isn’t afraid to use force when necessary—from Libya to Karabakh, it has repeatedly shown it can act decisively without waiting for Western approval.

Without Türkiye, Europe is doomed to weakness and chaos.

Brussels loves to talk about "strategic autonomy," but the reality is brutal: without U.S. military bases and Turkish military power, Europe is defenseless. Türkiye could be the shield that secures the EU’s southern flank, protecting it from growing geopolitical threats.

Instead, Brussels wastes decades in meaningless debates about “democratic standards” and “human rights” while ignoring the clear strategic advantages of integrating Türkiye.

Türkiye is already one of the EU’s largest trade partners. More than 41% of Turkish exports go to European countries. At the same time, Europe needs Türkiye’s market, which is rapidly expanding and offering massive investment opportunities.

But here’s the problem: if Türkiye isn’t granted full EU membership, it will turn elsewhere—toward China, Russia, and the Arab world. And when that happens, Europe will lose access to one of its most vital economic partners.

What Türkiye Brings to the EU

A young, dynamic market: Türkiye has a population of 85 million, with an average age of 32 (compared to 44 in the EU).

Industrial power: Türkiye’s advanced manufacturing sector would strengthen Europe’s production base.

An energy hub: Türkiye controls critical gas pipelines like TANAP and TurkStream, making it a key player in Europe’s energy security.

Türkiye isn’t just another country—it’s a geopolitical and economic powerhouse. It’s the only partner that can make the EU stronger, richer, and truly independent. Europe can either embrace this reality—or watch itself slowly fade into irrelevance.

The EU’s Political and Reputational Meltdown Without Türkiye

On the global stage, the European Union is increasingly seen as a sluggish, indecisive entity—an organization that struggles to make bold, strategic decisions. Unlike the U.S., China, or Russia, Brussels moves too slowly, lacks vision, and fails to act when it matters most.

Türkiye could change that overnight.

Today, Ankara is a major power broker in Syria, the Caucasus, Libya, Africa, and Central Asia. It doesn’t hesitate—it moves fast and delivers results. If integrated into the EU, Türkiye would inject strength, decisiveness, and real geopolitical weight into an otherwise stagnant bloc.

But if Europe keeps dragging its feet, Türkiye will simply turn elsewhere.

Ankara has already deepened ties with China and Russia, expanded its influence in the Middle East, and built alternative alliances that don’t rely on European approval. If the EU fails to seize this opportunity, it will lose Türkiye as a strategic partner forever.

Türkiye isn’t just another EU candidate—it’s the key to the Union’s survival. Without it, the EU will remain a weak, fractured alliance—defenseless, economically stagnant, and globally irrelevant.

The faster Brussels understands this reality, the better. But Türkiye isn’t going to wait around.

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