Azerbaijan, Baku, August 13 / Trend , D.Khatinoglu /
Dissatisfaction and protests with regards Ahmadinejad's dismissing 11 ministers and repeated replacements of 12 heads of influential organizations during his first presidency testify that if he does not change his position, he will face greater problems and protests during his second presidential term.
Iranian Professor Ali Ansari, who works in Britain, told Trend that the majority of the representatives of the camp of conservatives, who are in power, is dissatisfied with Ahmadinejad's independent authority.
Mehr news agency reported that at a meeting with representatives of Parliament, Ahmadinejad stated that next week he will present to Parliament the persons whom he intends to appoint to ministerial office. An influential representative of the MP conservatives, Ali Mutahhari, who is in power, told Mehr that Ahmadinejad insufficiently consults with relevant people regarding the candidates for ministerial posts.
Ex-presidential candidate, secretary general of the Supreme Advisory Council Mohsun Rezaee said in an open letter to Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani that the Parliament should more seriously approach the issue of approving nominations to ministerial posts. "Candidates for the posts of ministers should be experienced and capable people," said Rezaee.
According to experts, approving Ahmadinejad's new Cabinet of Ministers will not take place in a calm manner.
Member of the British Chatham House Center for Research, head of the Iranian Center for Studies at the University of St. Andrews, Professor Ansari believes that the position demonstrated by Ahmadinejad and the steps taken by him cause a split amongst conservatives. "Already for some time, there is a negative attitude of the conservatives to Ahmadinejad's position," Ansari told via e-mail on August 13.
A week prior to his inauguration, Ahmadinejad dismissed the minister of security Mohsen Edjei, which also caused a negative reaction amongst conservatives.
Answering Trend 's question about the prospects of cooperation between the Parliament, Ahmadinejad and the reformists, the head of one of the influential organizations at the Ministry of Security, who wished to remain anonym, replied the following: "Due to the recent steps taken by Ahmadinejad, I personally do not believe in the legitimacy of his government". The person refused to concretize the expression of "last steps".
Despite the protests of the opposition, there are a lot of forces supporting Ahmadinejad. Two days ago, chief ideologist of conservatives Mesbah Yezdi said that "obedience to the president is the same with obedience to Allah." According to many experts, who observe the political process in Iran, one of the main forces supporting Ahmadinejad is military, particularly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepah) and the Resistance Forces (Basij).
Mohsen Sazegara, who accompanied the ex-religious leader Imam Khomeini during his return to Iran in 1979 and played a major role in the creation of Sepah, told Trend that the current government of Ahmadinejad has been established as a result of "a secret coup d'état in a military way" and its legitimacy is under question.
Sazegara, who currently works in Washington, believes that the facts of the arrests, killings, sexual violence, torture in prisons with regards to those who protested against the results of presidential elections in Iran caused large differences in the camp of conservatives.
"Currently, the MPs and most of the officials, who whenever defended Ahmadinejad, abandon this position. Therefore, Parliament's approval of Ahmadinejad's new Cabinet of Ministers will not be easy," head of Research Institute for Modern Iran Sazegara said on August 13 by telephone.
Also, Ahmadinejad's appointing the father of his bride Isfendiyar Rahim Masha as the Vice President in July caused a severe reaction of the conservatives. Writing a letter to Ahmadinejad, the Iranian Religious Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei achieved dismissal of Masha from this post.
Ansari said that conservatives think that Ahmadinejad should consult more with them, but Ahmadinejad considers that due to the fact that he gained 24 million votes (65 percent) in the presidential election, he can prevent interference of others in the affairs of the government. "In particular, he does not wish to discuss with parliamentarians the people who he intend for ministerial posts," said Ansari.
As a result of protests against the election results, were arrested 4,000 people, killed 30. Those arrested include hundreds of influential members of the opposition. Opposition leaders do not recognize the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's government. Of the MPs from the opposition, 80 percent (57 of 70) refused to participate in Ahmadinejad's inauguration.
After all that happened, it is impossible to consider reformists in Iran as a strong opposition, and it is excluded that they will create some problems for the government, head of Research Center for the Middle East and Israel at the Moscow University Yevgeny Satanovsky told Trend .
Satanovsky believes that Ahmadinejad's main problem arises from the conservatives. "Ahmadinejad shut down the protests with the help of Sepah. "Appointing Masha the vice president, then delaying implementation of Khamenei's request to dismiss Masha for a week, Ahmadinejad lost certain part of the support of conservatives," Satanovsky said via e-mail from Moscow. Dismissing the minister of safety and taking the ministry in his hands, Ahmadinejad again faced with accusations of conservatives, said Satanovsky.
Non-recognition of Ahmadinejad's legitimacy by 70 members of the parliamentary opposition and reformists, as well as the continuing protests create additional problems to the existing government.
Unlike Satanovsky, according to Sazegara, if the protests will grow, there will be more differences between Ahmadinejad and MPs and the gap will increase, which will lead to the issue that Ahmadinejad will face even greater protests and crises in the second term of his presidency.
Iranian MPs from conservatives Hassan Gafuri Fard and Ali Adian Rad refused to answer the question by Trend about the prospects of cooperation between parliament and the authorities.