BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 13. Türkiye's electricity demand is forecast to rise at an average rate of close to 2.5 percent per year over 2023-2025, Trend reports via the latest electricity market update from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The agency explains that this growth is due to expanding economic and industrial activity in the country.
At the same time, electricity generation out of renewable energy sources is expected to increase by almost 30 percent by 2025 compared to 2022, and to account for almost half of the power generation mix.
It is expected that the first reactor of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant will be put into operation by the end of 2023, which will add to a gradual increase in production during 2024-2025. It is projected that by 2025, thermal power generation from fossil fuels will be 15 percent below 2022 levels.
Thus, between 2023 and 2025, coal and gas power generation is expected to decline by an average of 8 percent, and 3 percent per annum, respectively, resulting in lower emissions intensity in the Turkish energy sector.
The agency noted that following the drought of 2021, Türkiye’s hydropower output rose by 20 percent (+11 TWh) in 2022, recovering close to its 2020 levels.
Meanwhile, wind and solar generation expanded by 12 percent (+4 TWh), and 80 percent (+1.2 TWh), respectively. As a consequence, the share of renewables in total power generation rose to 42 percent, compared to 35 percent in 2021.
As the IEA explained, higher renewables-based generation weighed on thermal power, although gas- and coal-based generation posted differing results. The rapid increase in natural gas import prices led to gas-to-coal switching dynamics in the power sector. While gas-fired power generation fell by over 25 percent (-27 TWh) in 2022, coal-fired output rose by 8 percent (+8 TWh) in 2022, compared to the previous year.
An improved hydro availability allowed Türkiye to export close to 2 TWh of electricity into neighboring markets. By contrast, the country imported about 2 TWh in 2021, the agency noted.
"Türkiye’s electricity demand rose by 2 percent (+6 TWh) year-on-year in 2022. This was supported by strong GDP growth of 7.5 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2022, and an estimated 5.5 percent for the full 2022," the report added.