From March 13th to 15th, 2024, the city of Almaty, Kazakhstan hosted the launch of the B5+1 (Business 5+1) business forum, which brought together representatives from the private and public sectors of the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
The initiative to establish a special business platform, emphasized in the New York Declaration, was announced by the Presidents of the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the C5+1 Summit held in September 2023. On November 16, 2024, the U.S. Department of State declared the opening of this business platform. The main goal of B5+1 is to strengthen economic cooperation and improve the facilitation of trade, transit, and investment procedures among the countries of Central Asia, as a continuation of the political dialogue between Washington and the five states of the region.
B5+1 is being implemented within the three-year “Improving the Business Environment in Central Asia” (IBECA) program, funded by the U.S. Department of State and administered by the affiliated non-profit organization – the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), a part of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. CIPE’s mission is to strengthen democracy worldwide through private enterprise and market-oriented reforms. Over the past 40 years, CIPE has conducted more than 2,800 programs in 138 countries and has also developed business platforms such as B7 and B20.
During the B5+1 forum discussions, participants placed priority on economic security through promoting regional economic integration, implementing reforms, facilitating public-private dialogue, encouraging innovation, and attracting foreign investments to the member countries with the aim of dismantling trade barriers that hinder foreign investments and advancing the regional market.
At the conclusion of the forum, a communiqué was drafted, urging the governments and businesses of the C5+1 countries to “unite efforts to position Central Asia as an attractive destination rather than merely a transit zone in global value chains.” Five sectors were identified as particularly appealing to international investors and essential for the development of regional markets: transportation and logistics, e-commerce, tourism, green and renewable energy, and agribusiness.
The goal is to limit the influence of China and Russia in the region
The final communiqué states that the immediate priority is the establishment of a regional trade chamber to promote and advocate for economic integration. Conceptually, the United States acts as a leading intermediary between the Central Asian states to facilitate the acceleration of economic integration processes among the countries of the region through a strong public-private partnership. This was also emphasized by Samantha Power, the administrator of USAID, during the first Ministerial Meeting on Regional Interaction in the “C5+1” format in October 2023: “By taking real steps to reduce barriers in interregional and international trade, Central Asian countries will be able to gain tools to attract new investments to the region, find new markets for exports, and achieve income growth for farmers, entrepreneurs, and small and medium-sized business owners.” A week after the forum, on March 27, 2024 a meeting took place between Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Senator Steve Daines and Congressman Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. During the meeting, an agreement was reached to organize business missions from American regions to Uzbekistan.
The B5+1 strategy aims to organically strengthen American influence in the region through methods that are diametrically opposed to those used by Moscow and Beijing. This confirms the United States’ concern about the increasing dependence of Central Asian countries on economic partnerships with China and Russia. Nicholas Berliner, the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia and Central Asia at the National Security Council, emphasized the importance of the B5+1 forum as a catalyst for regional economic integration that extends beyond Central Asia.
According to Berliner, the volume of American investments in Central Asia is significant, with $1 billion directed to the region, specifically Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, in 2023. However, this does not negate the advantages enjoyed by Russian, Chinese, and even European competitors in terms of geographical proximity. In particular, based on bilateral trade in 2023, China and Russia were identified as Uzbekistan’s main trading partners with $13 billion and $9.8 billion, respectively, while the United States ranked only 13th with $657 million. The United States is only among the top 10 trading partners in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Unlike the Chinese and Russian mechanisms of interaction with Central Asian countries, the United States has identified the creation of a regional arbitration mechanism as another priority within the B5+1 framework. This mechanism would essentially serve as a centralized hub for resolving commercial disputes and attracting foreign investments. The communiqué states that “reliable protection mechanisms will make the region more competitive in attracting investors internationally.” Therefore, it is expected that the implementation of this initiative by a couple of Central Asian states will provide an impetus for expansion throughout the entire region. Several factors favor such projects, and not least among them is the desire of all regional governments to utilize cooperation with the United States in order to balance the sustained influence of Russia and China on their economy and overall security.
Diversification of transport and logistics links through Afghanistan and Azerbaijan
The organization of the B5+1 business forum is a logical continuation of the C5+1 dialogue on critical minerals. Ensuring secure supplies of mineral resources in the region requires diversification of transportation and logistics routes. According to Eric Hontz, the Director of the Center for Accountable Investment at CIPE, Central Asia is one of the least capitalized regions with an average income level in the world. One of the priorities of the United States in the region is their intention to invest in the development of terrestrial transportation infrastructure to connect Almaty, Bishkek, and Tashkent into a unified “Central Asian Transport Circle.” Forum participants also emphasized the importance of expanding regional connections through the Trans-Afghan and Trans-Caspian corridors, bypassing the Northern route through Russia.
Frederick Starr, the Founder and Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, highlighted in his report that the most important strategic goal for all Central Asian countries now is to open a window to the South, to India and Southeast Asia. This requires railway and road connections through Afghanistan, which all Central Asian countries consider a top priority. During his visit to Afghanistan on March 12t, 2024, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, Bakhtiyor Saidov, stated Uzbekistan’s intention to invest in the development of the Trans-Afghan Railway.
Director Rahim Oshakbayev from the “TALAP” Center for Applied Research believes that increasing transit from China to Europe via the Trans-Caspian corridor will allow the region to become a space for economic cooperation and advantageous investments for all countries, despite their differences. Meanwhile, F. Starr stated that Azerbaijan should be considered as part of Central Asia since the opening of the “Central Asia’s window to the West” cannot be achieved without the full integration of Azerbaijan in implementing this initiative. He called on American investors to invest in Central Asian projects with the perspective of Azerbaijan’s participation in these processes. In the absence of routes to India and Southeast Asia through Afghanistan, their only hope for liberation from economic dependence on Russia is participation in the “Middle Corridor.” Therefore, the joint communiqué also emphasizes the importance of signing and ratifying by all Central Asian countries an electronic commitment for fully paperless cargo transportation (e-CMR) and ensuring its implementation as a security and insurance system for transit goods.
In the final days of the forum, attention was also given to significant American interests in the human dimension. As a result of the forum, the parties agreed to create new subgroups to identify ways to improve the financial sector and expand women's entrepreneurship in the region. “The B5+1 Forum has highlighted the vast economic opportunities within this dynamic region and set a course for increased foreign investment and access to regional and international markets,” said Hontz. Lastly, it is worth noting that the organization of the Almaty B5+1 forum marked the institutionalization of the format. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have already expressed interest in hosting the forum next year.
Fazliddin Djamalov
Senior Research Fellow
Center for American Studies
Institute for Advanced International Studies (Uzbekistan)