BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov. 18
By Jani Babayeva – Trend:
The pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, pushing him to resign, will grow soon, Russian political analyst, a leading analyst of the Russian Agency for Political and Economic Communications Mikhail Neyzhmakov told Trend.
Neyzhmakov was commenting on the current political situation in Armenia.
“The pressure on Pashinyan will increase not only from the parliamentary and non-parliamentary opposition but also from a wider circle of elite representatives,” the political analyst added. “The recent statement made by Armenian President Armen Sarkissian about the "inevitability" of the early parliamentary election also confirms this trend.”
"Perhaps, a noticeable part of Armenia's elites will want to see the new prime minister," the expert said. “Perhaps, at least some of these players will be guided by the scenario that President Sarkissian could be the main public figure of the new government after the resignation of Pashinyan while a technical prime minister, for example, a career official or a business manager, could hold the position of the head of government for a transitional period.”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remark on the internal political situation in Armenia (that it is unacceptable to "split society inside") testifies that it is important for Russia to obtain guarantees that the steps outlined in the joint declaration will be implemented while radical strengthening of the positions of radical forces in Yerevan will not happen,” Neyzhmakov added. “This is a good signal for the Armenian current prime minister, but not a guarantee against resignation.”
The Russian political analyst reminds about his statement made in October and early November 2020 that even in case of the most negative scenario of the development of events in the Nagorno-Karabakh region for the Armenian side will not lead to the immediate overthrow of Pashinyan.
“Most likely, a huge part of the representatives of the Armenian elites is interested in the unpopular measures outlined in the joint statement on a complete ceasefire to be implemented precisely during the period of the current prime minister’s power,” the political analyst added.
“Let us also recall that quite often a considerable period of time can pass between a military conflict unsuccessful for a leader and his removal from power,” Neyzhmakov said. “For example, NATO's Allied Force operation against Yugoslavia occurred in March-June 1999 while Slobodan Milosevic's resignation after the Bulldozer Revolution occurred in October 2000. Taking into account all the difference between these situations, Pashinyan also has a chance to stay in power for some time."