Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct.30
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2018 is expected to stand at 1.486 million barrels per day, a minor change from last month's estimates, the US JP Morgan bank said in a report obtained by Trend.
“However, we have brought down the base for non-OPEC supply number in line with 2017 numbers, which is down by 110,000 barrels per day month=on-month. Most of the adjustments to the 2018 averages were made to US and Russia supply projections on a month-on-month basis,”said the JP Morgan analysts.
US supply is projected at 13.8 million barrels per day in 2018 and Russian output is expected to be 14.67 million barrels per day for 2018, according to the report.
The downward revision on a month-on-month basis to non-OPEC supply is due to Russian supplies being revised down on the assumption of an extension of OPEC deal to the end of 2018, said the analysts.
“Although we continue to use a high growth rate target of 950,000 barrels per day for US liquids supply for 2018 to be prudent, there is a rising risk of downside revision to this growth as US supply growth based purely on oil price rise will be met with a stronger negative force from the efficiency gains, cost inflation and capital discipline by producers,” said JP Morgan.
On May 25, 2017, OPEC member countries and non-OPEC parties, Azerbaijan, Kingdom of Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Sultanate of Oman, the Russian Federation, Republic of Sudan, and the Republic of South Sudan agreed to extend the production adjustments for a further period of nine months, with effect from July 1, 2017.
The reductions will be on the same terms as those agreed in November.
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