Oil prices could break out of mid-$60/b range

Baku, Azerbaijan, Aug.7

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Brent spot prices will average $64 per barrel in the second half of 2019 and $65 per barrel in 2020, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its August Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), Trend reports.

EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices during the fourth quarter of 2019 and in 2020, narrowing from the $6.60/b spread during July.

“On August 1, Brent and WTI prices declined by more than 7 percent on the day following the U.S. announcement of new tariffs on China, a large decline for a single day. It followed July, a month in which Brent crude oil prices traded in a $6.36/b range, the second narrowest range during any month in the past year. The narrow trading range in July occurred amid offsetting upward and downward oil price pressures,” said the report.

EIA said that continued Middle East tensions presented risks of supply disruptions and higher crude oil prices.

“Iran seized a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz in late July, but crude oil transit in the region has not been significantly disrupted to date. Continued demand-side concerns have generally added downward price pressure to crude oil prices this month. The International Monetary Fund recently lowered its estimates for global economic growth in 2019 and 2020. In addition, China’s gross domestic product growth for the second quarter of 2019 was 6.2 percent, the lowest growth rate for any quarter since estimates began in 1992. The July manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for the Eurozone, China, and Japan all indicated contraction in manufacturing activity as well,” reads the report.

The combination of oil supply disruption risk and lower economic growth expectations creates uncertainty in the pace of global oil inventory withdrawals and prices, said EIA.

EIA expects Brent prices to increase to $65/b by the fourth quarter of 2019 and remain there throughout 2020.

EIA’s flat crude oil price forecast recognizes that upside and downside price risks and EIA’s forecast for global oil inventory growth are currently balanced. “However, given the uncertainty in the risk factors discussed, prices could break out of the mid-$60/b range if the supply or demand concerns materialize in the coming months.”

---

Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

EAEU reveals export of Turkmen vehicles
EAEU reveals export of Turkmen vehicles
Turkey raised wood, furniture exports to Russia - Trade Ministry
Turkey raised wood, furniture exports to Russia - Trade Ministry
Turkmenistan plans to buy medical helicopters from Russia’s Tatarstan
Turkmenistan plans to buy medical helicopters from Russia’s Tatarstan
Loading Bars
Latest
Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh conflict beneficial to all parties, Russian expert says
Azerbaijan to build power supply stations in deoccupied districts
Geostat reveals volume of ferroalloys exported by Georgia to Turkey
EAEU reveals export of Turkmen vehicles
Georgia sees increase in export of flours, meals, pellets to Turkey
Operating performance of financial institutions improves in Georgia
Georgia reduces import of medicaments from Turkey
Wood, furniture exports from Turkey to Ukraine decline
Iran reveals its COVID-19 data for October 21
We drove Armenian army out of our lands so fast that they fling up their heels - President Aliyev
Azerbaijan confirms 176 more COVID-19 recoveries
Military equipment abandoned by Armenian army on battlefield (PHOTO / VIDEO)
President Ilham Aliyev on possibility of observers introduction
At the last moment Armenian refused to return Kalbajar and Lachin, says president of Azerbaijan
Iran restarts extraction from Sulabdar oil field
Azerbaijan reaffirms position on Lachin corridor which is part of fundamental principles - President Aliyev
President Aliyev says no country helping Azerbaijan in fight with Armenia
If Armenian side says it is ready to withdraw troops from occupied territories, issue of so-called observers can be considered - President Aliyev
Azerbaijan wants peace, also territories that rightfully belong to it - President Aliyev
Full responsibility for what is happening now lies squarely with Pashinyan, says Azerbaijani president
We are offered to make concession to Armenia, unilateral concession, while nothing being offered in return - President Aliyev
Azerbaijan ready to suspend military operations, resolve issue at negotiating table - President Aliyev
Armenia’s terrorist authorities must be punished – Azerbaijani MP (VIDEO)
Georgia, UK aim to strengthen business and commercial ties
Volume of market services in Uzbekistan’s transport sector remains predominant despite decrease
Azerbaijan to issue support for children who lost parents after Armenia's Ganja attack (PHOTO)
Turkey raised wood, furniture exports to Russia - Trade Ministry
Heads of Christian religious communities of Azerbaijan protest against draft resolution submitted to US Congress
TANAP named Project of the Year by US-based PMI
Eni Turkmenistan Limited opens tender related to data transmission services
Tajikistan's import of Turkish furniture down
Demand for Azerbaijani CBA's short-term notes exceeds supply
Value of goods exported from Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan Province revealed
Turkic Council condemns Armenia's attacks on populated areas, civilians in Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani ASB Bank's 3Q2020 assets down
Turkmen company considers opening production facility in Kazakhstan
Armenian aggression against innocents in Azerbaijan - condemnable offense, says Pakistani expert
Turkey's wood, furniture exports to Pakistan edge lower
Kazakhstan increases imports from Switzerland
Azerbaijan destroys another Armenian UAV - Defense Ministry
Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General's Office warns foreign citizens (VIDEO)
Georgia announces its plan about Tskaltubo spa resort
Azerbaijan reveals data on airfreight operations for 9M2020
"Together we are POWER": ENGINET supports injured children in Ganja city (FOTO)
Precious metal prices in Azerbaijan rising
Volume of gas pumped into Serajeh gas storage facility in Iran soars
Azerbaijan's railway cargo transportation down within 9M2020
Value of wood, furniture exports from Turkey to Uzbekistan down
Hungary reiterates its support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity
Kazakh coal extracting venture opens tender to buy electricity generating unit
Kazakhstan’s Oil Construction Company to buy pipes via tender
Tashkent Stock Exchange's trade volume increases
State Commercial Bank of Turkmenistan holds another campaign to increase cashback
Сontracted capacity of Enagas storage facilities reach 100% of available supply
Uzbekistan’s car production up within 9M2020
Volume of electricity generation up in Uzbekistan
Azerbaijani ASB Bank's net income drops
Azerbaijani FM leaves for Moscow
Iran declares number of enterprises restored in Qom Province
Azerbaijan has enough resources to quickly restore economic growth rates - CBA's chairman
SOCAR among TOP importers of gasoline to Ukraine
Azerbaijan announces latest data on civilian casualties, damages caused by Armenia's attacks
Georgia reports 1,351 new coronavirus cases
Indian Monnet company looking to launch ferrosilicon production in Kazakhstan’s Pavlodar
Azerbaijani MoD shows footage of newly-liberated Chereken village (VIDEO)
GTL may help companies increase their portfolio of higher value finished products
Turkmenistan plans to buy medical helicopters from Russia’s Tatarstan
Georgia talks about main road construction projects
Battalion of Armenian Armed Forces' 556th regiment neutralized - Azerbaijani MoD
Cotton fiber production increases in Uzbekistan
China's import of Turkish wood, furniture surges
Azerbaijani oil prices decrease
It's wrong to compare economically strong Azerbaijan with Armenia, Trend's editor-in-chief on Al Jazeera TV (VIDEO)
President's aide talks about Armenian attacks on Azerbaijani cities on Oct. 20
Gasoline production increases in Uzbekistan
Jet fuel consumption to return to 2019 demand levels in 2025
Kazakhstan to amend state budget due to COVID-19 preventive measures
Georgia talks about ongoing, future projects in construction area
Night, day artillery firings of Azerbaijani Armed Forces (VIDEO)
UK keen to support Azerbaijan to develop renewable energy sphere
Turkmenistan considers measures to prevent entering of COVID-19 into country
Investments in Kazakhstan's agriculture surge
Azerbaijani currency rates for Oct. 21
Armenia must forever forget Khudafarin, says Azerbaijani MoD
First regular international freight train departed from China to Uzbekistan
Information on shot down Azerbaijani military plane - lie, says Defense Ministry
Kazakhstan's revenue from transport via pipelines down year-on-year
EU launches new initiative to support small and medium-sized firms in Georgia
Azerbaijan's Azercosmos shows satellite images of newly-liberated Zangilan city
Major General of Azerbaijani Interior Ministry passes away
Iranian currency rates for October 21
Member of the Nizami Ganjavi International Center, former President of Ecuador publishes article in Ecuador ElTelegrafo newspaper
Number of coronavirus cases in Uzbekistan approaches 65,000
Armenian Armed Forces' artillery chief, division, batallion commanders neutralized - MoD
Turkmenistan, India intend to hold regular meetings
Incurring losses, Armenian troops forced to retreat, Azerbaijani MoD says
Azerbaijan eyes to introduce domestic products to Arab markets
New power plants construction in Azerbaijan to allow export of electricity
Oil prices slip as U.S. inventory build stokes fears of supply glut
Turkey's furniture and timber exports to Kyrgyzstan down
All news