EIA forecasts 0.3 mbpd growth for Iran’s crude output
Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 13
By Fatih Karimov - Trend:
Iran's crude oil production is forecast to grow by about 0.3 million b/d in 2016 and by 0.5 million b/d in 2017, the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report released Jan. 13.
The forecast growth of Iran's crude oil production through the forecast period also depends on internal factors including Iran's ability to mitigate production decline rates and meet technical challenges and on its willingness to discount oil.
The EIA estimates that Iran's crude oil production capacity is 3.6 million b/d, which is 0.8 million b/d higher than its current estimated production level.
The administration currently categorizes that 0.8 million b/d difference as a disruption because Iran's production is restricted by sanctions that affect the country's ability to sell its oil.
Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany), which was announced on July 14, 2015, Tehran expects sanctions relief in exchange for curbing its nuclear program.
EIA assumes the implementation occurs in the first quarter of 2016, clearing the way to ease sanctions at that time.
Iran's oil production stood at 2.8 million barrels per day in 2015, EIA said putting the Islamic Republic at third place among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The figure doesn't include the gas condensate (a kind of ultra-light crude oil, produced in gas fields) production volumes. Iran produces about a half of million barrels per day of gas condensate, mostly from giant gas field South Pars.