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Damascus - between Tehran and Ankara

Commentary Materials 14 May 2011 11:30 (UTC +04:00)
The bloody clashes between the authorities of Bashar al-Assad and opponents of the regime in Syria do not differ essentially from the revolutions that have occurred in other Arab countries
Damascus - between Tehran and Ankara

Rufiz Hafizoglu, head of Middle East desk of Trend

The bloody clashes between the authorities of Bashar al-Assad and opponents of the regime in Syria do not differ essentially from the revolutions that have occurred in other Arab countries.

Many political analysts believe that the revolt in Syria would bring authorities to the collapse, but the tightening of the situation showed that the Assad regime is not so weak as it seemed.
To suppress riots, President Bashar Assad lifted the state of emergency which has existed in the country since 1963, promised the people to conduct reforms, and on April 29 the government resigned.

It was supposed that the abolition of the state of emergency and the resignation of the government would contribute to establishing stability in the country. But people did not agree with this "concession" of the authorities, and in the country calls were made for the resignation of Assad.

Confrontation between the authorities and people spread to major cities of the country.
The Arab Orient Center for Strategic and Civilization Studies, headquartered in London, reported 827 killed during the events in Syria, but official sources report 170 deaths, of whom hundred people are military personnel.

Dramatic events and the increasing number of deaths among the civilian population caused the application of measures against Syria by the international organizations.

May 10, EU adopted a package of sanctions prohibiting the import of arms and military equipment into Syria, as well as prohibiting 13 officials of Syria, who are responsible for the killing of innocent people during riots in the country, to pass the EU border.

On the other hand, Ankara and Tehran, who made statements against the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, did not demonstrate the same activity in connection with the riots in Syria.
Tehran's attitude towards the events in Syria is very interesting. Thus, Tehran called the events in this country, which is a military ally of Iran, the machinations and plans of the enemy states.

Indeed, the regime change in Syria does not correspond to the interest of Iran or Turkey. Despite that Turkey is interested in the democratization of the region, the absence of serious alternative in Syria to the government of Bashar al-Assad makes Ankara to behave more cautiously in this situation.

According to some political analysts, the unrests in Syria are backed by the Islamist Muslim Brothers, and Bashar al-Assad's resignation, exactly they will come to power.

But if to closely follow the developments, it is possible to understand that the Muslim Brothers in Syria do not have much political weight that they have in Egypt.

This is connected with the fact that the then Government of Hafez al-Assad responded timely to the protest of the Muslim Brothers in the Syrian city of Hama in 1982, and the clashes that lasted several days killed 20,000 Islamists.

This led to the fact that the Muslim Brothers lost political influence in Syria.

But even if the Muslim Brothers replace the government of Bashar Assad, it would not serve the interests of the liberal-Islamist government of Turkey. Because the weak government in Syria - a country with a rich ethnic and religious composition - is a source of threat for Turkey.

Another factor troubling Turkey in Syria is a Kurdish factor. One of the real threats to Turkey is the activation of the Kurdish terrorist organization PKK in the event that the situation in Syria goes out of control and possible transfer of the members of this organization to the territory of Turkey as refugees.

Given all this, naturally Ankara avoids the harsh statements on the situation in Syria. But sooner or later Turkey will be forced to reconsider its policy towards Damascus in connection with events occurring in the country.

With regards to Tehran's support for Assad's power, it may be noted that Iran is doing this because it is afraid of losing its block in form of Syria.

Tehran is well aware that the revolt in Syria does not occur only upon the will of people, but also due to the planned support of the other Gulf countries. Despite that Syria is an Arab country, its political elite, consisting of Alawis, is close to Shiite Muslims, and unlike other countries, has close ties with Iran.

The purpose of the Arab countries is to decrease the influence of Iran, who has turned into a nightmare for the Sunni Arab world.

The events suggest to make a conclusion that although the Arab revolution is often referred to as people's revolution, the region countries often put their own political interests above all rather than the will of the people.

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