Truce between Israel and Hamas not to Last Long, however, Observers Disagree over Who will First Violate It

Azerbaijan, Baku, 20 June / corr. Trend E. Tanriverdiyeva, R. Abdullayev, U. Sadigova/ The observers in Jerusalem and Palestine agree that the current truce between the parties is unsteady and it will no last long, however they disagree over who will first violate it.

"We do not create illusions for ourselves and understand very well that whom we are dealing with as Hamas is a terrorist organization and the fight with the terror infrastructure and terrorist organizations was always carried out simultaneously with the peace process," the official of the Israeli Foreign Ministry Eddi Shapira said to Trend .

The truce between Israel and Hamas who controls Gaza, took effect on 19 June morning at 6:00 a. m. local time and it has not been violated yet. However, the Israeli Premier Ehud Olmert warned that the truce would be fragile and would not last long. According to Ma'ariv reports, those in Israel expect Kassam rockets from Gaza once again as not only Hamas but also Islamic Jihad, who is not a part of this truce, also fires rockets.

The observers in Israel are skeptical of the truce. "We are hopeful that the truce will give impetus to the peace talks. It once again shows that Israel is ready to contribute to the relaxation of tension, elimination of brutality and violence," Eddi Shapira said.

According to Shapira, Israel has made all efforts to reach ceasefire. According to the Israeli diplomat, if Hamas yearns for true peace, its leaders should end terrorist actions and rocket fires targeted at the Israeli citizens and they should recognize the Israeli government.

On the contrary, the political expert of the University of Illinois College of Law Francis Boyle believes that the truce can be violated by Israel.

" Israel's military and intelligence forces have always been able to sabotage diplomatic deals reached by Israeli politicians with the Palestinians by perpetrating yet another atrocity upon innocent Palestinians," Boyle said to Trend via electronic mail.

The expert does not rule out that Israel now is trying to end all disputes with Hamas, Lebanon and Syria in preparation for an attack upon Iran in conjunction with the United States.

"It is obvious that if truce holds up, it will be a victory for Hamas," expert added.

The expert of the Arabic Al-Jazeera TV channel Jihad Saadi believes that Israel has signed this accord because of the internal problems. According to expert, the Israeli government is not striving for the concrete truce.

"The Israeli Premier Ehud Olmert accepted these talks because of the problems within his government. It will never be advantageous for Israelites to sing a final truce in order to continue talks. This truce is true, but not final," Saadi said to Trend on a telephone from Kuwait.

Scott Lasensky, Senior Research Associate of the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention of the Peace Institute of the United States believes that no one knows how long the true between Israel and Hamas will last.

According to Lasensky, the situation is so volatile, and the chance for a small incident to escalate quickly is so great, this truce is especially fragile.

Egypt, who acted as mediator between Israel and Hamas for the last year, played a big role in this truce.

Shapira mentioned the great role and mission of the Egyptian diplomacy in ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. " Israel agreed to ceasefire thanks to the efforts of the official Cairo who guaranteed this agreement and Israel highly appreciates Egypt's role," the official of the Israeli Foreign Ministry said.

Lasensky also said that the government of Egypt deserves credit for creating a process by which the Israeli leadership and Hamas could communicate and work toward what appears to be a joint goal of ending violence on the Gaza/Israel frontier.

"That said, the truce can endure if the sides can continue to make progress --- hopefully with continued Egyptian mediation -- on the issues that remain unresolved; i.e. the tunnels from Egypt; the release of the Israeli solider, Gilad Shalit; access and movement in and out of Gaza, etc.," Lasensky said to Trend via electronic mail.

According to expert, the Egyptians have their own interest in a truce, but even beyond their particular interest, this mediation demonstrates a leadership role as well. 

However, Saadi believes that Egypt plays a formal, but not the main role in these talks as there are no positive results yet.

According to expert, though the participation of third parties in these talks is not vital, but it is possible that precisely the third party accelerated the achievement of truce.

According to the agreement, Israel is supposed to open check point in Gaza sector gradually in three days and lift economic sanctions on Gaza. The observers say that this item of the agreement is especially important for Hamas as it enables to demonstrate the local population the real achievements of the Organization in a war against Israel.

One of the authors of the agreement and head of the military and political headquarters at the Ministry of Defense of Israel Amos Gilad stated before the agreement took effect that 'any breach of agreement by Hamas will make Israel to reconsider its position'.

The correspondent can be contacted at - [email protected]

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