Outcome of events in Egypt and Libya not to be repeated in Iran
Azerbaijan, Baku, March 4 / Trend, T. Konyayeva /
Public disorders in Iran will not have the same result as in Egypt and Libya due to existing differences in the political atmosphere and the governance systems of these countries, Rouzbeh Parsi, an analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), believes.
"Events in Iran will not have the same result as in Egypt and Libya, not in the same way. There are major differences between Iran and Egypt, Iran and Libya," Parsi told Trend over the phone.
Demonstrations in support of Egypt's and Tunisia's peoples started in Tehran on Feb. 14. They were also held in other cities of Iran such as Isfahan, Shiraz and Kermanshah.
According to the opposition's official website Kaleme.com, more than 1,000 demonstrators hit the streets in the cities of Shiraz and Isfahan. Iran's national security forces used tear gas when dispersing rallies on the Azadi and Ingilab squares of Tehran.
The mass protests covering Iran's capital killed at least one person, and injured several dozen demonstrators, while more than 100 protesters were arrested. The campaigns of the opposition and their supporters in Iran continues today.
Parsi believes that Egypt was and is an ally of the United States and this is the reason that outside forces have some kind of influence in the country.
"It is not necessary to change things but it can help exert pressure at certain points. Most likely, this is what the Americans did, so in this sense, it may have helped to convince the Egyptian army to let Mubarak go," he said.
Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak resigned and transferred power to the army on Feb. 11. His resignation was preceded by the degradation of economic and social situation and the collapse of the internal security of the country. It is considered that the main causes of popular unrest in Egypt were social injustice, corruption and poverty. The mass protests and subsequent riots in Egypt killed 365 people and wounded more than 5,500 people.
According to Parsi, the situation in Iran is absolutely different. "For instance, in spite of good relationships with Russia and China, it doesn't have an outside power that can apply pressure in this regard. In that sense it is much more self-contained in the political universe," he said.
Comparing Iran with Libya, the analyst said that in Libya, which is basically a one-family nation, one clan has deprived state institutions of any autonomy and they have very tight control over all the processes in the country.
"At the moment that control is undermined, and it can easily be broken up. When people start realizing that they can oppose, they will be very strong. But because they don't have any real allies within the system, they look very weak," Parsi said.
Protesters have demanded the resignation of the country's leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who has been in power for already 41 years. The protests have continued from Feb. 15.
At present, Gaddafi has no control over the whole eastern part of Libya, as well as over several western cities of the country.
Parsi believes that the Iranian elite is much broader but much more split, which means even if one part of it would go, the other ones would still try to survive.
"Everything is not dependent on the family or the Supreme Leader, for instance. So, if any of them would die tomorrow, the system would still continue. That means that the opposition, in order to be successful, has to survive for a much longer period of time than they have proved themselves in Egypt or yet in Libya," he said.