Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 26 / Trend U. Sadikhova /
Israel is unlikely to be removed from the peace talks on the Iranian nuclear program by the United States, even if Washington may put forward plans of Arab countries to develop their own nuclear technologies as opposed to Tehran.
The article, published on the website of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, cites the opinion of the leading Israeli experts and former government officials in the security system that Washington will remove Israel from negotiations on Iran's nuclear program diplomatically because the U.S. is not interested in launching another regional war in the Middle East.
"Washington holds tough negotiations. But it avoids the concrete actions, while Israel is seething with anger," the article says.
Aharon Zeevi Farkash, former head of Israeli military intelligence, thinks that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel, preferring to use the weapons as protection against external invasion and to keep the region under its influence. Thus, Israel's deterrence against attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities would stimulate the creation of the bomb by Teheran, the newspaper said.
However, the removal of Israel would be risky for regional security, especially for Israel, given that Iran's nuclear ambitions could jeopardize the existence of the Jewish state, experts said.
Professor Raymond Tanter,earlier serving at the White House on the U.S. National Security Council staff, does not foresee that the United States would sideline Israel diplomatically in international talks on the Iranian nuclear program due to close strategic cooperation between the countries.
"The strategic cooperation between Israel and the United States is too close for Washington to sideline Jerusalem over an issue that Israel considers to be about its existence - Iranian nuclear weapons development," the Iran Policy Committee Head at Michigan University Raymond Tanter told Trend .
Israeli experts thought the contingency of failed multilateral negotiations would lead to an effort by the United States to engage in bilateral talks with Iran, excluding Israel, he said.
But such reasoning overlooks the fact that Iranian domestic politics make unlikely that Tehran could enter into bilateral talks with Washington. Splits within the Iranian regime are too great to allow such talks with the United States to proceed, Tanter said.
The United States and Iran maintain contacts within negotiations 5 +1, but there are no diplomatic or official ties between countries.
And just because Israeli specialists played a war game does not mean there is any support in the U.S. Government for sidelining Israel to negotiate directly with Iran, Tanter added.
Israeli Analyst, former Deputy Israeli National Security Advisor, Chuck Freilich, does not think Washington has sidelined Israel from the talks on nuclear program due to a deep dialogue betwen the two countries on the issue.
"Both the U.S and Israel share a deep desire to see a peaceful outcome of the issse, which does not leave Iran with a military nuclear option. Both consider a nuclear Iran a threat to regional security," International Security Program Senior Fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School Chuck Freilich told Trend via e-mail.
Israel, the U.S. will put plans of Arab countries in the first place to start developing their own nuclear program as opposed to Iran's one.
Interest of Arab countries in development of the nuclear program arose in the past two years and aimed to create a strong technological base, if Iran builds a bomb, as the West and Israel think.
In autumn Saudi Arabia stated about the construction of the first nuclear power plant, which will cover the needs for energy and be used exclusively for peaceful purposes. The White House approved it.
The United Arab Emirates along with Riyadh began construction of a nuclear reactor with the support of France.
If diplomatic efforts fail, and the Iran is perceived to have an atomic weapon capability, the U.S will try to provide allies with an umbrella but Arab countries can make additional actions, Theodore Karasik specializing in Middle East security.
"Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and then Turkey, will seek a self-sustained capability. At the same time other countries of Persian Gulf Council may have some other diplomatic and military options," Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) told trend News via e-mail.
The Obama administration as opposed to its predecessors' actions will consult with its regional allies on Iran's nuclear program before it goes into actions.
"In the past, the U.S supposedly informed allies ahead of time but acted first and consulted later. This may be part of a change under the Obama Administration. If true, this effort will give reassurance to the Arab allies," Karasik said.
However, Washington will make efforts to prevent nuclear arms race among Arab countries and Iran that could trigger another regional conflict.
The head of the Arab-Iranian Center for Strategic Studies, based in London, Alireza Nourizadeh thinks that the U.S. is afraid of a nuclear race in the Middle East. Therefore, the United States supported the construction of nuclear power stations to keep control over the nuclear plans of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
While Arab countries are concerned about Iran's nuclear technology, the United States are doing their best to avoid a nuclear race in the Middle East between Iran and its neighbors, Nourizadeh told Trend .
The U.S Professor Tanter said if Washington would help Arab countries to develop nuclear weapons, it will be involved in the violation of a treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in which Iran is accused.
"In any case, the Arab countries will need decades to reach the level of the Iranian regime in the development of nuclear weapons," he said.
D. Khatinoglu contributed in the article.