BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 4. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies has released its latest projections, indicating a forecasted growth of 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in global oil supply for 2024, holding steady from previous estimates, and a further increase to 1.5 mb/d in 2025, Trend reports.
The institute reports a revision in the global oil supply growth for 2023, up by 110 kb/d, primarily attributed to robust non-OPEC crude production in the second half of the year. Notably, the United States and Canada played a significant role in this surge, elevating the annual growth to 1.6 mb/d from the earlier projection of 1.5 mb/d. OPEC-9 supply contracted by 1.3 mb/d in 2023, while the OPEC-3 exemptions contributed 670 kb/d to global growth, led by Iran with an increase of 440 kb/d.
Looking ahead to 2024, the report assumes no extension of the additional OPEC+ voluntary cuts beyond the first quarter. It also anticipates a gradual return of the withheld 1.7 mb/d in the second quarter. Consequently, the global supply growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. Non-OPEC crude growth is expected to decelerate to 930 kb/d, driven primarily by the United States (+480 kb/d) and Brazil (+250 kb/d). OPEC crude growth is limited to the exempt OPEC-3, contributing 240 kb/d to the total.
Moving into 2025, a further slowdown in non-OPEC crude growth is anticipated, dropping to 610 kb/d, with the United States remaining the most significant contributor (+380 kb/d). OPEC crude growth is forecasted at 680 kb/d, assuming no change in the current OPEC+ output policy. The overall global supply for the year is projected to grow by 1.5 mb/d.
However, the report underscores heightened uncertainty surrounding the supply outlook. Factors such as OPEC+ output policy, escalating geopolitical risks, and scheduled or expected national elections for nearly half of the global population this year contribute to the elevated uncertainty in the global oil supply landscape.
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