Baku, Azerbaijan, March 5
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
A strong world economy is expected to underpin solid increases in oil demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil 2018 report.
“The fastest-growing source of global oil demand growth are petrochemicals, particularly in the United States and China. About 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 25 percent, of our total demand growth to 2023 is taken up by ethane and naphtha,” said the report.
IEA analysts believe that by 2023, oil demand will reach 104.7 mb/d, up 6.9 mb/d from 2018.
“As has been the case for some years, China and India together will contribute nearly 50 percent of global oil demand. As China’s economy becomes more consumer-oriented, the rate of growth in oil demand slows down to 2023, compared with the 2010-2017 period. In contrast, the pace of oil demand growth will pick up slightly in India,” said the report.
While there is no peak oil demand in sight, the pace of growth will slow down to 1 mb/d by 2023 after expanding by 1.4 mb/d in 2018, according to IEA analysts.
Moreover, there are signs of substitution of oil by other energy sources in various countries.
“A prime example is China, which has some of the world’s most-stringent fuel efficiency and emissions regulations. As the country recognizes the urgent need to tackle poor air quality in cities, efforts are intensifying. Sales of electric vehicles are rising and there is strong growth in the deployment of natural gas vehicles, particularly into fleets of trucks and buses,” said the report.
IEA believes that a rising number of electric buses and LNG-fueled trucks in China will significantly slow gasoil demand growth.
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