BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.19
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
In the short-term, global pipeline gas trade is expected to rise consistently, driven by an uptick in gas demand amid the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and, possibly, colder-than-usual winter seasons, Trend reports with reference to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
The completion of new gas pipelines in Europe, China and Mexico may contribute to a growth in global pipeline gas trade, the organization believes.
“In 2020, global pipeline gas trade, based on the net flows approach, declined by 4% to 525 Bcm, driven by a drop in global gas demand amid the COVID-19 restrictions (based on the gross flows approach, global pipeline gas trade dropped by 7 percent to 766 Bcm),” reads the GECF report.
The report shows that in net pipeline gas imports, Europe was the leader with 58 percent of the market, while Asia Pacific and North America represented 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
“In net pipeline gas exports, C.I.S. dominated with 48 percent of the market, while Europe and North America represented 20 percent and 11 percent of the market, respectively. In 2021, higher gas demand, driven by the colder-than-usual winter season, lower gas inventories and easing of the COVID-19 restrictions, as well as a drop in LNG imports resulted in a recovery of pipeline gas imports in Europe, which is a main driver of global pipeline gas trade,” noted the GECF analysts.
Moreover, in the short-term, global LNG exports (excluding reloads) are forecasted to grow by 5.5- 6 percent (21 Mt) in 2021 and 2022 to 376 and 397 Mt in respectively.
“The increase in LNG exports in 2021 is driven mainly by Non-GECF countries (25 Mt), which is expected to offset a small decline in GECF’s LNG exports (4 Mt). The recovery in lost LNG supply, due to weak spot prices in 2020, and the ramp-up and start-up of new LNG projects in the U.S. are expected to boost Non-GECF’s LNG exports. Despite the recovery in LNG exports in Egypt and start-up of new projects in Malaysia and Russia, feedgas issues and planned and unplanned maintenance activity in other GECF member countries have a negative impact on GECF’s LNG exports in 2021,” the report says.
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