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Market situation. Demand and prices

Politics Materials 9 February 2007 12:03 (UTC +04:00)

Consumer market

In December 2006 a rise of the retail goods turnover got restored amid continuing rise of the community services and was 24%. In January to December the amount of retail goods turnover comprised 5760.3mln manats, or 13.5% up as compared to last year. The commercial services delivered to population comprised 1400.7mln manats, or 42.1% up as compared to previous year.

Prices

In January to December 2006 the growth pace of inflation was 8.3% as compared to 2005, when it was at 9.6%. The consumer prices rose 11.4% in December as compared to 2005.

Inconsiderable rise in the growth pace of inflation was caused by intensification of the growth pace of prices of all goods. Thus, in December the food prices rose 16.1% as compared to 2005. Rise in prices was 11.9% in January to December 2006 as compared to last year. Rise in prices of non-food products was more considerable than food prices. Thus, in October the prices of non-food products increased 7.5% as compared to December. Rise in prices as compared to last year was 5.3%.

According to the econometric model of the National Bank of Azerbaijan (NBA), over January-November, 2006, the share of monetary funds in the formation of 11.4%-inflation made up 77.2%.

Growth of monetary factors in this period was linked with the conversion of the currency by the Bank, with 97% implemented with respect to finance the budget expenses. Increase of money mass was 75%.

The considerable growth occurred in the period from February to October (2.1 times). The nominal efficient rate on the non-oil sector of economy made up 2.2 percent, while rise over February to October of 2006 was 3%.

In difference to previous months, non-monetary factors had insignificant influence on the inflation rate (22.8%). The share of administrative regulated prices in the reporting period made up 19%, which is connected with the diesel fuel price increase in January вЂ" by 2 times, kerosene вЂ" 1.3 times, sugar вЂ" 35.4%. The influence of seasonal factors was at 0, whereas due to summer, the prices in May-August, 2006 decreased by 4.5%. Due to winter season in January-April and September-December, the prices increased by 3.8% in January-April and September-November, though growth rate in the non-oil sector was 11,2% in January to November.

The National Bank of Azerbaijan (NBA) announced that in November 2006 the basic inflation rose by 9% as compared to 2005.

In December rise of the Consumer Price Index was 1.4% as compared to November, while average annual calculation was 6.5%. The calculations were made in line with the first methodology, which removes all fluctuations of administrative regulation of prices (prices of energy resources) and prices of seasonal character (fruits and vegetables).

In accordance with the second methodology of calculation, which uses average principle of smoothing, the basic inflation made up 1.1% in December 2006 as compared to November 2006. Last year the Consumer Price Index rise was 5.7%, while average annual вЂ" 4%. During the calculation the NBA cleans the basket by 16%, from the goods and services that have administrative and seasonal prices.

As compared to November 2006 the index of industrial goods price has not changed. The figure rose 17.7% in 2006 and 17.1% as compared to December 2005. Price rise in 2006 made up 13.3%, while in December вЂ" 11.6%. Wholesale prices in oil refinery rose 47.1%, while growth pace in December made up 46.8% as compared to December 2005.

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