Non-OPEC oil supply set to grow in 2020
BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Non-OPEC supply in 2019 is estimated to grow by 1.82 million barrels per day (mb/d), while in 2020, this figure is expected to stand at 2.17 mb/d, Trend reports citing OPEC’s December Oil Market Report.
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 64.30 mb/d for the year.
The US supply growth estimate remained unchanged at annual growth of 1.62 mb/d compared to last month’s assessment, despite the upward revision in 3Q19 following higher than expected output in September.
The supply forecast for 4Q19 was revised down by 75 tb/d to average 18.87 mb/d. Canada’s oil production growth also remained unchanged at 0.10 mb/d on a yearly basis, as actual production levels in 3Q19 were revised up by 17 tb/d, while 4Q19 was revised down by 30 tb/d due to expected lower output resulting from ongoing production curtailments in Alberta.
The UK oil supply estimate for 4Q19 was revised down by 64 tb/d, following lower-than-expected oil output in October. Estimated annual growth was revised down by 0.02 mb/d to average 0.05 mb/d. Despite downward revisions in actual oil production data of India and Indonesia by 5 tb/d and 6 tb/d, respectively, in 3Q19, annual growth remained unchanged in these two countries.
Finally, following higher-than-expected oil output in October and November in Russia, production in 4Q19 was revised up by 70 tb/d to average 11.41 mb/d. This led to an upward revision in annual growth for Russia by 0.02 mb/d to average 0.08 mb/d for 2019.
Non-OPEC supply in 2020 is forecast to grow by 2.17 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment, and is expected to average 66.46 mb/d for the year. The upward revision in the UK by 14 tb/d offset by downward revision of 18 tb/d in Russia.
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