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Who dares overthrow Syrian President?

Commentary Materials 16 November 2011 09:22 (UTC +04:00)
After Syria’s membership in the League of Arab States was suspended and Turkey’s attitude towards the authorities toughened, foreign intervention in the country seems more than probable.
Who dares overthrow Syrian President?

Trend Middle East Desk commentator Aygul Tagiyeva

After Syria's membership in the League of Arab States was suspended and Turkey's attitude towards the authorities toughened, foreign intervention in the country seems more than probable.

However, as opposed to the recent sad events in Libya, when coalition countries of the military operation appeared to be vying against each other to be the first to invade the country, the international players do not show the same interest for Syria's issues.

The same can be said about the Arab countries. Despite numerous meetings and debate over the situation in Syria, they have not come to any conclusions.

In this case, the following questions arise. Who needs to overthrow President Assad's regime? Who will help the rebels first to achieve this?

If we consider the situation in Syria through the eyes of the West, military intervention in Damascus's affairs does not match their interests. Firstly the West is experiencing an economic crisis so such an operation in Syria is not favoured from a financial point of view.

For example, Washington avoids the additional costs to restore order in Syria after Congress criticised its involvement in Libya's events and on the eve of the 2012 presidential campaign. American voters are tired of wars and will not vote for the administration which starts military operations at the same time as having problems in its own economy.

Secondly, there is the factor of Iran and the Shiite movement Hezbollah. It has already pledged the West a bloody revenge in the case of Western intervention in Syria's affairs.

Regarding the Arab countries, those especially the Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia, support the Alawite regime in the country that is under Iran's direct control. However, even taking this into account, the Arab countries are unlikely to make an attempt to interfere in the Syrian crisis on their own.

Taking into account the above-mentioned, Turkey is a major player in resolving the Syrian problem. Ankara maintains the role of a peacemaker in the region. It has its own interest in assisting the Syrian rebels.

From the very beginning of the Syrian riots, Ankara was concerned about instability fearing that Kurdish separatists in Syria will benefit from the chaos. It means a direct blow to the stability in Turkey. Kurdish separatists in Syria maintain close ties with their counterparts living in Turkish territory.

Moreover, the destabilisation of the situation in the neighbouring country may negatively affect some trade-economic projects in Ankara.

We must remember that Turkey will be able to resist Tehran in the issue of military intervention in Syria's affairs after the decision was made to deploy the missile defence system on its territory and this worries Iran.

Many experts have expressed the opinion that the West and the Arab countries rely on Ankara for in the settlement of the Syrian crisis and wait for Turkey to overthrow President Assad's regime.

Turkey seeks to resolve the conflict in neighbouring Syria and much depends on what Ankara will say at an emergency meeting on Syria in Morocco on November 16.

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