Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Oct. 23
By Demir Azizov- Trend:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its GDP growth forecast in Uzbekistan in 2015 and 2016 at the level of 6.8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, projected in the beginning of September, according to the IMF review of prospects for the regional economy "Caucasus and Central Asia" published on the website of the IMF Fund Oct.23.
Maintaining consistently high growth rates will be achieved, in particular, due to the successful reorientation of long-term gas exports from Russia to China, according to analysts of the IMF.
If the matter rests in Uzbekistan, the reorientation of the natural gas export from Russia to China, which pays a higher price, helped to offset the negative impact of lower international prices for hydrocarbons, said the review.
In addition, the fund considers that the Uzbek government in the medium term will continue to increase public investment in the economy, partly due to a decrease in investment activity in Russia.
Inflation in Uzbekistan in 2015 will be 9.7 percent (in September, the IMF predicted a 10.1 percent inflation for 2015) and 9.2 percent inflation in 2016 (previous forecast was 9 percent).
The fund analysts said that the national authorities may need to keep a tight regulatory approach in the monetary sphere if the depreciation leads to persistent inflationary pressure, primarily due to a reduction in remittances from Russia.
In accordance with the current forecast, the account of current operations in Uzbekistan in 2015 and 2016 will amount to almost zero - 0.2 and 0.3 percent of GDP, respectively, against the zero level projected in September.
It was earlier reported that in 2014 the Uzbek GDP increased by 8.1 percent compared to 2013.
In 2015, the government plans to ensure an 8 percent GDP growth, inflation will be kept in the range of 5.5 - 6.5 percent.
Uzbekistan joined the IMF in 1992, the country has its office since 1993.
Edited by CN