Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 12
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
Analysts of the US JP Morgan bank expect moderate recovery of oil prices with Brent to average $82 per barrel and WTI to average $77.25 per barrel.
"Oil markets have continued to witness dramatic price declines over the year-end period and into early 2015," analysts said in a report obtained by Trend.
Oil markets have fallen by $12 per barrel since mid-December, with market structure for both Brent futures contracts deteriorating in parallel, according to the analysts.
During electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on January 9, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery decreased by $1.25 to $47.52 a barrel.
February Brent, which is the benchmark price for products in Europe and Asia, decreased by $1.69 to $49.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
The OPEC Reference Basket price decreased by $0.49 to $45.19 per barrel.
JP Morgan's analysts expect Brent price to amount to $75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2015, and then to reach to $80 in the second quarter, $85 in the third quarter and $88 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.
WTI is forecasted to amount to $72 per barrel in the first quarter, $76 in the second quarter, $80 in the third quarter and $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2015.
In 2016, analysts forecast average price for Brent at $87.75 per barrel with the highest level of $90 per barrel in the third quarter. WTI average price is predicted at $80.75 per barrel with the highest price of $83 per barrel in the third quarter of 2016.
US analysts mentioned that the current weaker prices have their roots in the continued pressure the supply pressure in the Atlantic Basin.
"Last November's failure by OPEC members to agree on any form of cooperation to manage crude supplies has accelerated the spread of market imbalance to Middle Eastern Gulf crude markets," analysts said.
Analysts assess that the flow of crude from the Atlantic Basin to Asia will likely need to reach a record level in 1Q2015, if markets are to balance. On average they expect 2.68 million barrels per day to head east in 1Q2015, an increase of 0.31 million barrels per day year-over-year and 0.16 million barrels per day higher than the 4Q2014 average.
JP Morgan forecasts for oil prices, 2015, 2016 (in $/bl)
|
2014 |
2015 IQ |
2015 IIQ |
2015 IIIQ |
2015 IVQ |
2015 |
2016 IQ |
2016 IIQ |
2016 IIIQ |
2016 IVQ |
2016 |
|||
|
Brent |
100.3 |
75.00 |
80.00 |
85.00 |
88.00 |
82.00 |
85.00 |
88.00 |
90.00 |
88.00 |
87.75 |
||
|
WTI |
93.7 |
72.00 |
76.00 |
80.00 |
81.00 |
77.25 |
78.00 |
81.00 |
83.00 |
81.00 |
80.75 |
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Aygun Badalova is Trend Agency's staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @AygunBadalova