JP Morgan expects global oil demand growth at 1.3 mln bpd in 2012 and 2013
Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 12 / Trend A.Badalova /
Worl oil demand will increase by 1.3 milllion barrels per day (mln bpd) to 90.3 mln bpd in 2012 compared to 89 mln bpd in 2011, the analysts of the large U.S. bank JP Morgan predict.
JP Morgan analysts said in their monthly oil market report, that the outlook for a rebound in oil demand to 1.6 mln bpd in the second half of 2012 remains unchanged, although the possibility of a price spike due to supply limitations - which in turns suppresses demand - presents a risk.
According to the analysts' forecasts, demand in the countries of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will amount to 45.7 mln bpd, in non-OECD countries - to 44.6 mln bpd in 2012.
Analysts predict world oil demand to increase by 1.3 mln bpd to 91.6 mln bpd in 2013.
According to the forecasts, in 2013, oil demand in the OECD countries will amount to 45.5 mln bpd, non-OECD countries - 46.1 mln bpd.
According to the forecasts, oil demand in Asia will be 29.5 million bpd in 2012 and 30.4 million bpd in 2013. Most of the oil demand will fell to China - 10 million bpd in 2012 and 10.5 million barrels per day in 2013.
Oil supplies by OPEC
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in OPEC oil supply by 0.9 to 30.7 million bpd in 2012 compared to 29.8 million bpd in 2011. According to analysts' expectations, OPEC will decrease oil supplies by 0.4 million to 30.3 million bpd in 2013.
According to the analysts' estimates, OPEC crude production amounted to 30.8 mln bpd, which was largely the incorporation of a more cautious assessment of Iranian production during the month keeps production below recent four-year highs.
Overall, 2012 OPEC supply is revised up by 0.4 mln bpd. "Drivers of this upward revision include higher Libyan, Nigerian and Iraqi volumes partly offset by slightly lower Saudi Arabian volumes," analysts said.
Oil supply by non-OPEC countries
According to the JP Morgan's analysts, oil supply by non-OPEC countries will rise by 0.5 million barrels to 51.2 million bpd in 2012 and by 1.2 million bpd to 52.4 million bpd in 2013.
"Supply estimates for 2012 are trimmed this month following the deterioration in the situation in Sudan, Syria and Yemen," analysts said.
According to the analysts' forecasts, oil production in the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries will amount to 13.8 mln bpd in 2012 and 2013.
Middle East countries' production will decrease to 1.4 mln bpd in 2012 and to 1.6 mln bpd 2013 compared to 1.7 mln bpd in 2011.