Oil prices can drop $20 a barrel Q1 2016

Oil prices can drop $20 a barrel Q1 2016

Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 9

By Khalid Kazimov - Trend:

A strategic market consultant, has estimated that the oil prices could drop as low as $20 per barrel in the first quarter of 2016.

"I think in the short term, i.e Q1 2016, we will (provided no production cuts are made) see oil prices in the $20 per barrel, possibly the low $20s," Chris Cook, the former director of International Petroleum Exchange, told Trend Jan.9.

Cook who is a strategic market consultant, entrepreneur said that he doesn't think sufficient production cuts will be made by OPEC/non-OPEC for the oil price to exceed $40 per barrel in 2016".

OPEC oil basket price plunged to $27.85 on Jan.6, about $1.86 less than the previous day.

According to OPEC's official website, this figure is $10.18 less than Dec.4, when the member countries failed to agree on determining a new production ceiling.

OPEC oil basket price was about $108 in first half of 2014, but has been decreasing due to glut in the markets. The current figure is the lowest price since early 2014.

According to an OPEC monthly report, released Dec.10, the total OPEC crude oil production in November rose by 0.23 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 31. 695 mb/d - about 1.7 mb/d more than the ceiling level.

That is while, according to OPEC's report, the demand for the cartel's oil in 2015 is 2.1 mb/d less than the current level.

Demand for OPEC's crude in 2015 is estimated to stand at 29.4 mb/d, an increase of 0.4 mb/d over last year, according to the report.

The report said that in 2016, the demand for OPEC crude is forecasted at 30.8 mb/d, an increase of 1.5 mb/d over the current year.

Prices started to go down in early 2014 and have not shown any sign of improvement so far.

On January 7, the US benchmark crude-oil contract tumbled $0.7, or 2.1 percent, to reach $33.27 per barrel to strike the lowest close since 2004.

Asian markets closed mixed on the last day of 2016's first trading week. The week had seen the Chinese market shut down prematurely two times in order to stem rapid selloffs.

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