BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 30
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global oil demand is expected to be a record 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) lower in 2020 than in 2019, Trend reports with reference to the Global Energy Review of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“The impact of containment measures in 187 countries and territories has almost brought global mobility to a halt. Demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, falling to a level last seen in 1995. For Q2 2020, demand is expected to be 23.1 mb/d below 2019 levels. The recovery in the second half of 2020 is projected to be gradual, as economies come out of containment and activity levels rise. Nonetheless, demand is not expected to reach pre-crisis levels before the end of the year, with December demand projected to be down 2.7 mb/d from December 2019 levels,” reads the report.
IEA notes that as a result of declines in mobility, in March alone world oil demand plummeted by a record 10.8 mb/d year-on-year.
“In China, the country first affected by the Covid‑19 outbreak, lockdowns began to curb mobility from the end of January, resulting in an estimated decline of more than 13 percent in quarterly oil demand compared with Q1 2019. China’s National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese Customs data on refinery production and trade indicate a decline in total oil demand in February of over 2.5 mb/d, or 20 percent, relative to February 2019. The drop was largely due to a decline in gasoline demand of 1.1 mb/d, or 33 percent, while demand for jet kerosene dropped by 28 percent as aviation activity plummeted in February. In March, activity increased as certain provinces eased restrictions. Nonetheless, we estimate that oil demand levels in China were 22 percent lower in March 2020 than in March 2019,” reads the report.
The damage done by Covid‑19 to oil demand beyond China became clearer during March, as the outbreak moved to Europe and the United States and a growing number of countries imposed strict containment measures.
“Oil demand in March declined by more than 10 mb/d relative to March 2019, pushing Q1 2020 demand in advanced economies down by 2.3 mb/d relative to March 2019. In the rest of the world, demand dropped by 3.3 mb/d across Q1 2020. Chinese oil demand is believed to have accounted for 1.7 mb/d of the non-OECD drop. In OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, Europe’s oil demand is estimated to have dropped by 0.9 mb/d, America’s by 0.8 mb/d and Asia’s by 0.6 mb/d. Total oil demand is estimated to have declined by 5.6 mb/d in Q1 2020,” reads the report.
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