BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.10
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The global primary oil demand will fall 13 percent in 2020, reaching a level not seen since the early 2000s, Trend reports with reference to Germany-based DNV GL.
“It will rebound somewhat to 2023, before declining gradually to half of its 2018 level in real terms by 2050. While oil demand has reached its highest level globally, as with many aspects of the energy transition, the pace and nature of changes differ from region to region. Oil demand will continue to grow in Greater China to the late 2020s, South East Asia until the early 2030s, on the Indian Subcontinent until 2040, and in Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the end of our forecast period in 2050,” the company said in its report.
“On the Indian Subcontinent this will be led by a significant increase in internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE-Vs) for personal use, as well as demand from the region’s competitive and substantial refining and petrochemicals sector.
“In Sub-Saharan Africa, increased oil demand will be led by increases in commercial and personal ICE-Vs, as well as growth in demand from shipping, aviation, and petrochemicals. Oil demand in Middle East and North Africa, and in South East Asia, will remain relatively consistent through to 2050. Together, these four regions (IND, SSA, MEA, SEA) will account for 53 percent of oil demand in 2050, compared with 27 percent in 2018. Increases in these regions will temper the declines in oil elsewhere. Europe, North America, and OECD Pacific will see rapid declines; they (EUR, NAM, OPA) accounted collectively for 43 percent of oil demand in 2018, but only 20 percent in 2050.”
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