BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 3. Azerbaijan’s crude and condensate production is likely to remain flat through 2023, as declines at legacy Caspian fields are partially offset by growth from the Shah Deniz and Absheron condensate projects, and the Azeri Central East project, Nareeka Ahir, a geopolitical adviser with S&P Global, said, Trend reports via S&P Global Platts.
"Additional growth beyond our forecast is unlikely with other projects operating at capacity," Ahir said.
Peter Wells, CEO of Strategic Petroleum Insights, said the country's OPEC+ quota "is unrealistically high," adding that he was not optimistic declines at the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) project could be reversed.
ACG was produced to a rapid and high peak rate with high offtake rate, he said.
"We are well into a decline phase and the current production is all the field can do without additional investment," Wells added.
Total Azeri-Chirag-Gunahsli (ACG) production for the first quarter of 2022 was on average about 434,000 barrels per day, as compared to 484,000 barrels per day in the same period in 2021. As such, ACG production fell by 10.3 percent year-on-year.
BP Exploration (Caspian Sea) Limited is the operator on behalf of the Contractor Parties to the ACG Production Sharing Agreement.
ACG participating interests are: bp (30.37 percent), SOCAR (25 percent), MOL (9.57 percent), INPEX (9.31 percent), Equinor (7.27 percent), ExxonMobil (6.79 percent), TPAO (5.73 percent), ITOCHU (3.65 percent), ONGCVidesh (2.31 percent).
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