BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.22. From a fundamental perspective, the gasoline market is expected to become more balanced next year, after years of undersupply, with stable demand and growing supply, which limits the upward price pressures, Trend reports Nov.22 via Fitch Solutions.
“The fundamental picture supports our increasing bearish outlook for gasoline prices. Global consumption of finished motor gasoline is now expected to remain stable, at 24.7mn b/d. At the same time, given healthy refining capacity globally, we expect gasoline supply to grow from 24.1mn b/d in 2022 to 24.7mn b/d in 2023. The supply-demand gap is now estimated to shrink from 621,500b/d in 2022 to 55,500b/d in 2023,” reads the latest report released by Fitch Solutions.
The company analysts note that balanced fundamentals will support normalisation of gasoline crack spreads into 2023, however the expected levels remain above historical highs.
“The gasoline crack spreads have retreated from summer highs of USD49.4/bbl to the average of USD11.8/bbl in Q422 and we expect the normalisation of spreads to continue into 2023 on the back of balanced fundamentals. Over 2023, spreads are expected to linger below 2022 levels however above historical averages. We expect crack spreads to broadly follow seasonal trends with the average margins growing from approximately USD12.0/bbl to almost USD26.0/bbl over the northern-hemisphere summer in 2023. Overall, we forecast 2023 spreads to average at USD18.4/bbl, down from the 2022 average now estimated at USD22.4/bbl.”
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