Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 16
By Aygun Badalova -Trend:
Global liquids consumption will reach 109 million barrels per day by 2035, according to BP Energy Outlook 2035.
At the same time growth of global liquids consumption is expected to continue to slow - from 1.3 percent per annum in 2000-12 to 0.6 percent for 2025-35.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) consumption is projected to fall by 8 million bpd to 37.6 million bpd in 2035, the lowest since 1985. Non-OECD consumption will reach 71 million bpd by 2035 - 60 percent higher than in 2012.
BP predicts liquids supply to expand by over 18 million bpd with non-OPEC production
contributing nearly 11 million bpd of growth and OPEC crude and NGLs accounting for the rest. Unconventionals will drive non-OPEC growth and delay the need for higher OPEC supplies, the report said.
"OPEC crude production will not expand significantly until 2025, but by the end of the forecast period will be up over 4 million bpd. OPEC NGLs will continue to expand on increasing natural gas production in the Middle East and contribute over 3 million bpd to growth," the report said.
In BP's outlook, demand growth slows and non-OPEC supplies rise - both as a result of high prices.
BP assumes that OPEC members cut production over the current decade. As a result, spare capacity will exceed 6 million bpd by 2018, the highest since the late 1980s.
Overall BP predicts global energy demand to continue to increase at an average of 1.5 percent a year to 2035. Growth is expected to moderate over this period, climbing at an average of 2 percent a year to 2020 and then by only 1.2 percent a year to 2035. 95 percent of this growth is expected to come from non-OECD economies, with China and India accounting for more than half of the increase.