BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb. 4
By Klavdiya Romakayeva - Trend:
Analysts of Fitch Solutions predict a rebound in export growth to 12 percent in Uzbekistan, driven largely by growing demand from China, a leading trading partner, Trend reports referring to the press service of Fitch Solutions.
According to Fitch Solutions rating agency, it is predicted the growth of real GDP in Uzbekistan will reach the level of 5.1 percent in 2021.
“We have raised our forecast because Uzbekistan will recover from the impact of the COVID-19 crisis this year. Despite significant shocks, the local economy has shown significant resilience during the coronavirus pandemic and is one of the few in the world to avoid a recession in 2020,” analysts explain.
The agency also expects a significant rebound in domestic and foreign demand in the coming quarters, as containment measures will gradually ease.
“We expect gross fixed capital formation to rise to 14 percent as businesses ramp up production and the government continues to implement its ambitious program of economic liberalization and modernization,” the message said.
Analysts predict a rebound in export growth to 12 percent, driven largely by growing demand from a leading trading partner, China. “The expected rebound in commodity prices, especially for natural gas and cotton, will also support higher prices for the country's main export commodities,” the agency noted.
As for the risks, Fitch considers them to be balanced. It is noted that the main threat comes from the possibility of another major outbreak of COVID-19 infection, which will force the government to impose new restrictions and disrupt economic activity.
“These risks should gradually decrease as the COVID-19 vaccines spread, which we expect to accelerate from mid-2021,” Fitch Solutions said.
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