OPEC increases forecast for non-OPEC countries’ oil production
Baku, Azerbaijan, Aug. 10
By Elena Kosolapova – Trend:
OPEC expects oil supply in non-OPEC countries to contract by 0.79 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2016 to average 56.13 million bpd, the cartel said in its Monthly Oil Market Report published Aug. 10.
The forecast was revised up by 90,000 bpd as compared to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published in July.
Upward revisions due to higher-than expected oil production from the US, UK, Norway, India, Brazil, Oman and Ghana were seen mainly during 2Q16, which was partially offset by downward revisions in the forecasts for Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, Russia, Kazakhstan and former Soviet Union countries, the report said.
The overall indications in the supply by the end of 2Q16 are showing that the short-term outlook for non-OPEC supply in 2016 is being revised up due to the recovery in Canadian oil production following the vast wildfire in Alberta and rising rig counts in the US for four consecutive weeks, resulting in higher-than-expected output.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2017 was revised down by 40,000 bpd this month and is expected to contract by 0.15 million bpd over the current year to average 55.97 million bpd.
This revision was due to the 2016 base change and also partially due to a change in the UK production forecast.
The weak growth trend estimated for 2016 is expected to continue at a slower pace in 2017 up to the end of the second half, supported by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Americas’ lower decline and higher gains in Latin America and Africa, according to OPEC. Yet this will be partly offset by declines in former Soviet Union countries.
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