Commentator at Trend Middle East Desk Bahram Hasanov
Turkish public's severe reaction to the events in Gaza was accompanied by sharp anti-Israeli statements by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his no less dramatic response to Israeli President Shimon Peres at the international forum in Davos. For the first time in the last decades, Turkish government's official position on the Middle East has coincided with that of the country's public.
Turkish society perceives the Middle East region as something "native". The Middle East is linked with the Turks by deep historical and cultural ties and was controlled by Turks for centuries. In its Middle East policy, the current Turkish government is trying to give preference to the internal dynamics of the society and the features based on historic heritage. Taking into account the public opinion in the region, Ankara is trying to base on a real force in order to reach its strategic goals in the Middle East. The political trend founded by chief foreign policy advisor to Recep Tayyip Erdogan Ahmet Davutoglu is called a "neo-Ottoman" trend. In short, given the ongoing situation in the world, Turkey is trying to regain the role of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East. I wonder how far realistic this plan is. Undoubtedly, Turkey's desire to regain a leading role in the Middle East and its advances achieved over the past six years cause a concern to the mighty of this world and their allies who have a great interest in the region. "Serious actions" against Turkey's new Middle East policy, which limits Israel's and U.S.'s freedom of action in the region, should be expected. Turkey has not forgotten to take preventive measures against the pressures it will face before implementing its Middle East policy. The most important of these measures is the maximal utilization of its economic potential. Strong economic ties with Russia, Iran, the Middle East, Africa and Asia, have been constructed over the past six years. Diversification of relationships makes it extremely difficult to put economic pressure on Turkey. Turkey's economic power is proved by the fact that the global economic crisis has affected this country least of all.
A lever to put pressure on Ankara is recognition of the "Armenian genocide". Yet, Turkey is not facing a serious risk. Although, the Lower House of the U.S. Congress is likely to recognize the "Armenian genocide" in order to bind up Turkey, a document is unlikely to be adopted. The U.S. does not want to lose a strategically important country like Turkey, nor does the Israeli lobby want to stop Turkey's support and to take a move which will make Holocaust something ordinary in the public eye.
The most real danger to Ankara does not come from the international community, but from the country itself. It will not be a surprise if attempts on famous people of Jewish origin or attacks on synagogues will begin in Turkey in near future. A misinformation on the issue has been disseminated in order to "check the universal reaction". On Monday, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported the burning of a synagogue in Turkey. Head of the Israeli community in Turkey refuted the report. However, there are other possible obstacles on the way of Turkey's Middle East policy. Turkey can face resistance from Arab countries in the Middle East. Although, Erdogan's speech in Davos was greeted with great enthusiasm in the Arab world. Erdogan has become a subject of discussion in Palestine and Arabic media outlets as the heroic leader of a heroic country. It is not a secret that Arab nationalism is built on confrontation to Turkey. And therefore it is not a coincidence that Turkey's relations with the Islamic Hamas are better than with the nationalist Fatah. Given all this, the events likely to occur in the Middle East after some time to cause resentment of Arab nationalism will not cause surprise. In short, despite the serious potential to regain Ottoman Empire's role in the Middle East and despite the progress made in this direction, Ankara will face serious problems.
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