Azerbaijan, Baku, May 15 / Trend , A. Badalova/
In recent months financial markets, particularly securities market, have shown noticeable signs of improvement, which raised hopes for the speedy recovery of the global economy. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg across the world, the level of consumer confidence which i is considered one of the first indicators that give a signal of economic recovery, increased in May 2009 to a all time high over 19 months.
The statements by the central banks about signs of world economic recovery are the major impetus for growth of confidence. For example, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet earlier this week expressed confidence that the world economy is approaching a turning point which is proved by slowing rate of decline of world GDP. Trichet said the recent economic research has shown some signs of stabilizing economies, where some countries are seeing a resumption of GDP growth.
However, not all share the viewpoint of relatively early way out of the world economic crisis. Former President of the World Bank and Chairman of the Advisory Board of Citi James Wolfensohn is among the pessimists. He does not believe in a rapid recovery claiming that further development of the world recession will be held at the L-shaped (sharp decline and then a long depression near the bottom).
Standard & Poor's made the most pessimistic forecast earlier this week saying that the banking crisis in the United States' only entering a new phase "and may last until 2013".
According to estimations by U.S. JPMorgan, of one of the world's largest banks, global economic recession will reach the lowest point over the next two months and then a rapid recovery will begin.
Analysts of the British consulting company Economic Research Capital Economics does not exclude the probability of V-shaped recession (dramatic failure, then a quick way out of recession), especially in the United States and Japan, but think that the restoration of all the same will vary and hold temporary character.
"Many economies are also at growing risk of a new shock in the form of falling wages," senior international economist at the British company Julian Jessop told Trend .
The unprecedented policy measures taken to avert the threat of a financial meltdown and cushion the real economy have at least halted this downward spiral, Jessop said. "Nonetheless, there are many reasons to hesitate before predicting a smooth recovery."
"History shows that recessions triggered by financial crises are deeper and last longer than those caused by other shocks, and recoveries are slower," Jessop said.
British economist said another risk is a further wave of problems in the financial sector. The most toxic assets may have been addressed, but the depth of the recession and the prospect of further large rises in unemployment mean that there are still plenty of losses to come from conventional lending, Jessop said.
Analysts at the International Monetary Fund believe that the economic crisis in Europe could last at least until the second half of 2010. According to the latest IMF forecasts, the Eurozone economy will shrink by 2.4 percent in 2009. GDP will decline to 4.9 percent incountries with emerging market economies this year. In 2010, these countries will experience a growth of 0.7 percent