Azerbaijan, Baku, May 1 / Trend , D.Ibrahimova / Mohsen Rezaee's chances to win in the presidential elections in Iran are small, but his participation in the elections testifies absence of single position from the Conservative camp.
"Rezaee's participation in the presidential election will not affect it, an expert on Iran's domestic political issues Ahmad Zeydabadi told Trend . - Unlikely he will gain many votes in the elections."
Former corps commander of the Islamic Revolution (Revolutionary Guardians) Mohsen Rezaee nominated his candidacy for the presidential elections. Rezaee is a member of the Advisory Council of Iran and the first candidate from the Conservative camp. The current Iranian Conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad began pre-election campaign, but has not confirmed his nominations for the elections.
Up to now, from the reformist camp, chairman of National Trust Party, former speaker Mehdi Karroubi, and former Prime Minister of Iran Mirhuseyn Moussavi nominated their candidacy for the presidential elections to be held on June 12.
Experts believe that Rezaee's chances to win the elections are small because of his "military past". Mohsen Rezaei seems to be a qualified and experienced candidate for presidency, but he cannot attract a big constituency due mainly to his military background, which is psychologically counterproductive for his purpose, whether among the conservative faction or in a wider society, - Hossein Moghaddam, expert on Iran told Trend via e-mail.
Kamran Matin, expert on Iran, considers that Rezaee does not necessarily represent the entire rank and file of the RGs. "Moreover, Ahmadinejad is also a former RG officer and more than half of his cabinet ministers are former RGs commanders," he said. "So if anything Ahmadinejad has a much more structural and institutional connections with the RGs," Matin, lecturer in international relations at University of Sussex, told Trend via e-mail.
"Even despite Rezai's military background, he is unlikely to be able to win the votes of the Revolutionary Guards personnel, as he no longer belongs to such forces and, moreover, he has his differences of opinions with the current Chief of the Revolutionary Guards", Moghaddam, convener of Iranian studies in Australian National Unversity, said.
On the other hand, Rezai doesn't have many chances to win the elections since Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of the country, who has a strong influence on the policy of the state, supports Ahmadinejad.
"To this one has to add the tacit support of the supreme leader for the incumbent president," the expert said.
The authorities of the religious leader of Iran were expanded after making changes to the Constitution of Iran in 1989. According to the paragraph 110 of the Iranian Constitution, the definition of the policy of the Government of Iran is also in the hands of the religious leader.
The powerful Council of Guardians which supervises, along the interior ministry, the elections has also explicitly supported Ahmadinejad, Matin said.
"Khamenei has control over the Council of Guardians, comprising 12 members (appointed directly or indirectly by Khamenei), who has the right to veto decisions of Parliament and to check reliability of candidates for elections," mentioned in the report by Karim Sadjadpour, expert on Iran at Carnegie Endowment Center.
However, another expert Ali Mazrui says that it is too early to talk about Rezaee's chances for victory, because basic political forces in the country have not yet expressed formal support. "When the key political forces in the country express support to any candidate, then it is possible to talk about Rezaee's chances for victory in presidential elections," said Mazrui, chairman of the Association of Iranian Journalists
With regards to the absence of a single candidate from the Conservative camp, the experts agree that they did not have single position in the past as well.
Both fractions of reformists and conservatives are still too divided to settle on a candidate, Moghaddam considers. Similar to Mohsen Rezaei, the strongest reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi is also running for the presidency as an individual and not as a candidate of the whole reformist faction, the expert said.
Many conservatives are unhappy with the policies of Ahmadinejad and for this reason do not want to support him.
"The fact that some conservatives are unhappy with the policies of Ahmadinejad testifies that conservatives do not agree upon nominating a single candidate for presidential elections," Mazrui told Trend in a telephone conversation. Zeydabadi also said that many people in the camp of conservatives are unhappy with the policies of Ahmadinejad, and do not want to support him in the elections.
Rezaee seems to be closer to that part of Iranian upper middle class that are more involved in industrial activity and investment, and As a result they see the isolationist policies of Ahmadinejad detrimental, Matin said.
The reason for the economic isolation of the country is the sanctions by the UN Security Council aimed at scaling down Iran's nuclear program, of which peaceful character presents doubts for Europe and the United States. Tehran denies the military character of its development and does not intend to suspend the program.
On the other hand, Rezaee is an independent candidate, and no group of conservatives supported his candidacy. "Still Rezaee is nomination of itself, and no group of conservatives has supported him," Zeydabadi told Trend in a telephone conversation.
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