BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 19. Global refinery throughputs in 2023 are forecast to total 82.4 mb/d - up by 1.6 mb/d year-on-year.
According to the data provided to Trend by the International Energy Agency (IEA), world crude throughput took a more significant hit in October than initially suggested by preliminary data.
In particular, OECD crude runs saw a drop of 2.1 mb/d month-on-month, coming in at a 2.5-year low of 34.5 mb/d - 540,000 b/d weaker than last month's estimate.
Non-OECD runs also fell short, with preliminary data falling 490,000 b/d below expectations. The decline was driven by unplanned outages and extensive maintenance.
Consequently, as the IEA estimates, global runs for 4Q2023 are now assessed at 81.9 mb/d, a notable 725,000 b/d below last month's report. Estimated average throughputs for 2023 and 2024 have been revised to 82.4 mb/d and 83.3 mb/d, respectively, with annual growth adjusted to 1.6 mb/d this year and 880,000 b/d in 2024.
The IEA forecast suggests that refinery activity will peak at 84.2 mb/d in December 2023, followed by maintenance in North America and the Middle East initiating the spring turnaround season. Looking ahead to 2024, the agency assumes Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery will commence commercial operations in the middle of 1H2024, following reports of imminent crude deliveries.