Azerbaijan, Baku, May 29 / Trend , A.Badalova/
OPEC's decision to maintain the quota of oil production without changes in the oil market has played a positive role. Oil prices in the United States on the basis of the auction on May 28, has exceeded $65 per barrel, a record for the level of 2009. July WTI futures price rose by $1.63 to $65.08 per barrel. As a result of auction on the London Stock Exchange price of futures contracts for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent with delivery in July rose by $1.89 to $64.39 per barrel
The decision of OPEC member countries to keep the former level of production was not unexpected. Taking into account the dynamics of oil prices in recent years, as well as statements by OPEC unlikely to change the cartel quotas for the upcoming meeting, analysts foresaw this outcome.
The main factor that influenced the OPEC's decision not to reduce production, most likely, it was the demonstration of oil prices raising trend. Given the last result, we can say that in total, oil went up this month at 27 percent, the highest monthly growth in the last 10 days.
Moreover, despite the fact that the OPEC quota for production remains unchanged, cartel still expressed the intention to strengthen the discipline of participants on its implementation. To date, the OPEC quota is set by 24.845 million barrels a day. However, despite earlier measures to reduce OPEC production in April, the level at 965,000 barrels per day higher than the established quota. Thus, the cartel is in fact possible to reduce production, to bring it to the required level. According to Petroleum Minister of Algeria Shakiba Khelil, strengthening the discipline of member countries would lead to a reduction in production by 800,000 barrels per day.
OPEC member countries have repeatedly stated that the best price for oil is $60-70 per barrel. We can say that the cartel is already close to the target. The continuing rise in prices has already been given reason to make sensational predictions. Ecuador Oil Minister Derlis Palacios has promised that oil prices will fly up to $400 a barrel within the next few years. Earlier, Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia said that crude oil went up to $200 in the next two years.
However, it is necessary to take into account the situation in the world economy is still quite volatile, which has a significant impact on world demand for oil. According to forecasts of large organizations, restoration of the demand is not expected before 2010. This year, according to public expectations of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), world demand for oil will fall to 1.77 million barrels to 83.67 million barrels a day. According to forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand this year to decline by 2.6 million barrels a day.
Thus, the current trend of higher oil prices may be temporary. And the embodiment of OPEC dreams of $70 may be short-lived. And in order to restore its influence in the oil market, OPEC should wait for the full restoration of the world economy.
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