BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.14. Oil demand is expected to reach peak over the coming decade, then falling down by 2050, Trend reports via bp’s 2023 energy outlook.
The company believes that lower use of oil in road transport will be one of the reasons of the falling demand, since vehicles are using more and more renewables.
Still, the report reveals that oil will maintain its major role in the global energy system over the first half of the outlook in Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios of bp. The company estimates that the world oil consumption will stand at between 70- 80 Mb/d in 2035.
The decrease in oil demand will accelerate in the second half of the outlook, when it will fall to 40 Mb/d in Accelerated and 20 Mb/d in Net Zero in 2050.
bp’s New Momentum scenario predicts stronger oil consumption at almost 100 Mb/d through much of this decade, before dropping to about 75 Mb/d by 2050.
Emerging economies will see a flat oil demand over much of the first half of the outlook in all three scenarios, while the decline in oil demand will accelerate in developed countries. As such, emerging markets will account for 70 percent of global oil demand in 2050, as compared to 55 percent in 2021.
One the one hand, rising prosperity in emerging markets puts upward pressure on oil demand, but on the other hand, with the vehicles becoming more efficient, there is a switch away from oil to alternative energy sources.
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