Azerbaijan, Baku, Aug. 17 / Trend , E.Tariverdiyeva/
The cadre changes in the OSCE Minsk Group will not become a factor which could destabilise the negotiating process, British Political Scientist of Azerbaijani origin, Teymur Huseynov believes.
"Bryza's latest comments about the need of return of five occupied towns around Nagorno-Karabakh as the necessary first step have once again indicated that the United States has in fact come closer to arguments voiced by Azerbaijani leadership," Head of the Eurasia Division of the British Exclusive Analysis Ltd. private company of assessment and forecasts for political risks, Huseynov told Trend .
In this sense, Tina Kaidanow's possible appointment will not alter the strategic outlook of the White House to the ways of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, he believes.
Armenia should return 7 districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia Online quoted OSCE Minsk Group U.S. Co-Chair Matthew Bryza as saying.
In 2009, the Russian and U.S. Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group will be changed, Russian Co-Chair Yuriy Merzlyakov told Trend earlier.
Diplomat Tina Kaidanow will replace Matthew Bryza as the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, but not as the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair, the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan told Trend earlier.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts. Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. - are currently holding the peace negotiations.
However, Huseynov believes this positive remark by Bryza is being neutralised by current pressures on Baku to take the obligation of non-use of force under any circumstances against the Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh.
He said this effort is rather futile, for the Kosovo and Georgia examples have already set dangerous precedents, that in today's greater Europe successful self-determination is achieved through the use of force rather than principles of international law or compromise.
"In the case of Nagorno-Karabakh the negotiators should focus on exploring ways of reconciling the principles of territorial integrity and self determination leading to peace, which would also open the doors for Armenia to participate in transnational energy projects in the region," Huseynov said.
Moreover, as the basis for negotiations have been the so-called Madrid principles, the political scientist believes the official Baku will be rather careful in discussing the details of such intricate issues as the transitional status of Nagorno-Karabakh, time frame and voters identification in a likely referendum, return of refugees and deployment of international peacekeeping forces to the occupied territories.
"All in all, I assess the possibility of arriving at a solution during President Aliyev's and Sargsyan's Kishinev meeting this autumn as very low due primarily to domestic constraints on both presidents that impede making any meaningful progress through negotiations within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group," Huseynov said.
It is planned that Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan will hold the next meeting on the agorno-Karabakh peaceful settlement in Chisinau on Oct. 9 as part of the summit of the CIS countries' heads.
The Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan held talks on peaceful settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Moscow on July 17-18. This was the sixth meeting in the Aliyev-Sargsyan format in 2009. The previous, fifth meeting on conflict resolution between the two leaders was held in St. Petersburg on June 4. The previous meeting was held in Prague on May 7. The first meeting was held in St. Petersburg in June 2008, the second meeting in Moscow in late November 2008 and the third was held in Zurich on Jan. 28, 2009.
V.Zhavoronkova contributed to this article.
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