Azerbaijan, Baku, June 22 / Trend , A.Badalova/
The global economy reaches its bottom, but hopes for a V-shaped global recovery will be disappointed, analysts of the US Morgan Stanley bank believe.
"We estimate that the global economy returned to positive, though very subdued, growth in the current quarter," said Morgan Stanley analysts' report on world review which has been posted on the bank's official Web site.
GDP almost dropped by three percent from the second quarter of 2008, when the global economic growth reached it's the highest point, to the first quarter of 2009.
The report says the massive global policy stimulus applied in response to the credit crisis has successfully short-circuited the vertiginous downward spiral of global demand, output and trade witnessed during late 2008 and early 2009. The stimulus helped to spark the recovery in risky asset markets and vaporised deflation fears, thus supporting economic activity.
However, the analysts believe hopes for a V-shaped global recovery will be disappointed. "Consumers are likely to be cautious in the face of rising unemployment (labour markets lag), companies will hold back on capex in the face of high excess capacities," the report says.
The International Labor Organization (ILO) forecasts that under the influence of the global economic crisis, unemployment will increase to 7.4 percent and amount to roughly 240,000 people this year which is the highest level since 1991. Number of the unemployed people will increase by 50 million people in 2009.
In contrast to the expectations of Morgan Stanley, the World Bank, by contrast, predicts a rapid recovery of the world economy in 2010. The WB forecasts that the global growth next year will be two percent, while growth in developing countries - 4.4 percent.
The Morgan Stanley analysts forecast global GDP expanding at quarterly annualised rates of only 2-3% between now and the end of 2010, unusually low for early recovery phases. This would take full-year 2010 GDP growth to 2.9% (from -1.6% this year).
"Given the downdraft in activity over the last few quarters, our forecasts imply that it would take until the middle of 2010 for global GDP to return to its previous peak level reached in 2Q08," the Morgan Stanley analysts believe.
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