ADB reveals Turkmen economy forecast for 2019-2020

Business Materials 3 April 2019 13:29 (UTC +04:00)

Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, April 3

By Huseyn Hasanov– Trend:

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts the gross domestic product (GDP) of Turkmenistan to grow 6 percent for 2019, Trend reports with reference to the Asian Development Outlook report.

The report says that the growth rate of the local economy in 2020 will be at 5.8 percent. The ADB also noted that inflation in Turkmenistan will reach 9 percent in 2019 and 8.2 percent in 2020.

The government is expected to continue its efforts to curtail inflation by maintaining a fixed exchange rate and administrative price controls, supporting import substitution, and limiting foreign exchange conversion.

The state budget is projected to incur deficits equal to 1.3 percent of GDP in 2019 and 0.9 percent in 2020.

Contracts for larger gas shipments are forecast to lift merchandise exports by 14 percent in 2019 and 10 percent in 2020, outpacing projected merchandise import growth of 6.2 percent in 2019 and 0.5 percent in 2020. With the completion of large projects that require imports of advanced equipment and services, the current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.7 percent of GDP in 2019 and 3.4 percent in 2020.

As financing other large investments would require further accumulation of external debt, which is already projected to equal 29.4 percent of GDP in 2019 and 31 percent at the end of 2020, a sound debt-management strategy is required, especially given low hydrocarbon prices and a sizable external deficit.

The GDP growth rate of Turkmenistan was 6.2 percent in 2018 compared to 6.5 percent a year earlier.

Public debt of both the government and state-owned facilities was estimated at 30.9 percent of GDP at the end of 2018, compared with 28.8 percent a year earlier.

According to a report by British Petroleum (BP), Turkmenistan ranks fourth in the world in terms of natural gas reserves and currently exports it to China and Iran.

The country set a course for diversifying the local economy. The oil, gas, chemical, and building material industries are actively developing.