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Georgia’s Fail to Hold Military Campaign in South Ossetia Leads Several Friendship Countries to Extremely Complicated Situation: Azerbaijani Political Scientist

Politics Materials 21 August 2008 18:33 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, 21 August / Trend / An interview with Rashad Rzaguliyev, president of the Azerbaijani Social Projects Fund.

- The comments regarding the Russian-Georgian relations filled all information areas. What is about your vision on the issue?

- At early millennium most analysts and experts forecasted beginning of the war era. The forecasts, as we see, are justified. The world repartition begins. Force becomes the main issue for development of world rather than devalued international deals. As for the incident... Georgian's attempts to restore constitutional area in its uncontrolled territories by force caused conflict of interests with Russia, where Russian citizens reside. Taking into consideration that Russian troops did not have a mandate for peacemaking activity in the region, the Georgian-Russian military contradiction in active phase was inevitable. The incident, undoubtedly, has tragic consequences, not only for Georgia. The Georgian leadership failed the military campaign in South Ossetia dully and led most friendship countries including Azerbaijan to extremely complicated situation.

- What do you mean?

- Georgia is the key partner for Azerbaijan and Turkey on a range of international geoeconomic projects. Energy and transport highways, with Georgian participation, have formed a new geopolitical landscape of the region, as well as permitted us to strengthen the status of independence and later, to commence a new phase to restore the territorial integrity in our countries. Today, the serious and complicated work was in danger, as to me, through most dully manners by Mikhail Saakashvili's Administration.

- Georgia did run into risk and lose?

- Georgia has been deceived in hopes, expectations, and forecasts and in leader finally. Countless countries 'warmed their hand' in tragedy of Georgian people. Unfortunately, it had happened.

- What will change after Georgia leaves the CIS?

- In practice, the Commonwealth of Independent Countries has been not functioned. Today, the organization, in its functional plan, carries ornamental character only. The organization can be referred to political anachronism of near past.  We can consider Georgia's threats to leave the CIS as a net demonstrative step. Initially, the CIS was infected with the virus to collapse, and the organization did not carry the foundation frame, as Armenia being an aggressor country and Azerbaijan the victim of Armenian aggression remained its members from the begging. CIS did nothing to solve the conflict between the conflict member-countries. Therefore, the number of countries, which have conflict, has been increasing.

- Which further prospective do you see in the event?

- Russia has crossed "Rubicon' by its actions in Georgia. The democratic image of the new Russia has been damaged by interference into the Georgian-Ossetin conflict seriously and for a long period. Russia will actively locate itself as the world leader by using the key tool of the modern epoch- force: political, financial-economic and military... It is too expensive pleasure and time will show how it will affect the Russian economy. One can forecast the beginning of Russian more activity in the whole post Soviet area. At the same time, I do not see serious contradictions of interests between the Russian Federation and the United States in the near future. These countries are able enough to reach agreement. The only disagreement point is the upcoming interference into Iran by the United States. In this context, both the United States and Russia will derive their dividends. Will Georgia experience serious change of its foreign policy as Mikhail Saakashvili proclaims? I am not sure... Georgian President's anti Russia rhetoric has been on the brink. There is another factor - the Georgian Diaspora in Russia is numerous and integrated into political and economic system of Russia and Georgia, and unlikely it will permit the conflict between the countriesto take place long. Georgian political and financial groups cannot reconcile with lost of Russian markets. Saakashvili will have either take into consideration the fact or have to face with serious political difficulties in the country.

- To what degree, as foro you, rational Azerbaijan's position in the Georgian-Russian conflict?

- I consider Azerbaijan's position in the context as the adequate and one right thing. I am surprised by... Armenia, which occupied 20% territories of Azerbaijan, is the same national state and full right actor in international policy, like Russia. I cannot understand why the parents of international laws do not want to announce the country as aggressor. Moreover, the leading countries, which demonstrate altruism and peaceableness, propose both Armenia and Azerbaijan to compromise, which will force Azerbaijan to make free-will refusal from its territorial integrity principle.

- Can the conflict flare into a regional one and can it involve our country as well?

- Certainly, there are high risks and threat for Azerbaijan.  However, the further development of events is controlled. Taking into consideration the format of the country's foreign policy, which has been implemented by the incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, the threats will be minimized.

-Do the blast committed in the Abu-Bakr Mosque in Baku have interaction with the recent events in Georgia and explosion in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline?

- The recent blast occurred in the Abu-Bakr Mosque in Baku during prayer, is more than monstrous and tragic. I hope that the names of criminals and motive of the crime will be revealed soon. Although the investigation is going on, to my mind, there is no interaction between them.

The correspondent can be contacted at:[email protected]

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