BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 10. US retail gasoline prices will maintain an average of approximately $3.40/gal in 2024, with a subsequent decrease to around $3.20/gal in 2025, Trend reports.
According to the estimations made by the US Energy Information Administration Agency (EIA), this is a decline from the averages of $3.52/gal in 2023 and $3.97/gal in 2022.
While lower crude oil prices in 2023 compared to 2022 played a crucial role in the decrease of gasoline and diesel prices by an average of $0.44/gal, the anticipated decline in gasoline prices for 2024 will be primarily influenced by decreasing gasoline crack spreads, the agency noted.
Gasoline crack spreads, which have remained at near-record highs in recent years, are expected to weaken over the next two years. The EIA anticipates a narrowing of gasoline crack spreads as global refinery capacity expansions result in an overall increased supply of gasoline in global markets.
Meanwhile, the EIA predicts that US retail diesel prices will average above $3.90/gal in 2024 and edge closer to $3.80/gal in 2025, marking a decrease from the $4.21/gal observed in 2023.
The consumption of diesel fuel is estimated to remain relatively stable over the next two years. However, the administration also anticipates an uptick in refinery production of diesel and the expansion of renewable diesel production, contributing to an increase in distillate inventories for the majority of this year compared to 2023.