Azerbaijan, Baku, 26 July/ Trend , corr E. Tanriverdiyeva, R. Agayev/ The arrest of the leader of the Bosnian Serbs Radovan Karadzic will probably improve relations between Serbia and European Union, but not any time soon as Belgrade wants and it should also fulfill all European conditions.
"The EU members have already stated that they commend the moves of the Serbian authorities, but they think they are not sufficient to raise the issue of Serbiaїs membership in EU. EU believes the hand-over of the remaining war participants from the Serbian side to be a preliminary condition for the EU membership," Mikhail Remizov, the Russian political expert said.
Three days later the capture of the former leader of the Bosnian Serbs Radovan Karadzic, who was charged with the genocide toward the Muslims and firing at the civilians of Sarajevo, EU and US began talks with Belgrade. The Serbia now is required to arrest Ratko Mladic and other war participants. Serbia is also required to give consent to the deployment of EULEX mission of EU in Kosovo. The last requirement for Belgrade may be to give up the struggle to return Kosovo back.
The experts agree in view that the arrest of Karadzic is nothing more than the display by Belgrade of its readiness to do almost anything to integrate into EU.
"A total of 27 EU members adopt decision and some of them will say: "Karadzic is arrested, but Mladic not", said the French foreign minister, Bernar Koushner, who presides over EU said on 24 July.
The key evidence about the cooperation of Serbia with tribunal is the arrest of Mladic, France Timmermance, the foreign minister of Holland said to the Serbian media and added that even the expected positive assessment of Serbiaїs cooperation with Tribunal by its attorney general Serj Bramerts will not change position of his country, Kommersant newspaper of Russia said.
The European expert on EU Kamil Zwolski believes that there are at least three dimensions of the EU relationship with Serbia and the capture of Radovan Karadzic will not change the situation dramatically.
"There is a geographical dimension, which works in favour of the eventual inclusion to the EU of the Western Balkans countries. The neighbours: Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary are all members of the European Union. Croatia will join soon," Zwolski, researcher on EU at the University of Salford of United Kingdom said to Trend by e-mail.
According to expert, the strategic dimension is equally working in favour of Serbia and the Western Balkans. It has traditionally been a role of the European foreign policy, to stabilise countries by involving them in a very tight cooperation (European Neighbourhood Policy) and also by offering them an EU membership.
He also pointed to the political dimensions which will not enable Serbia ton integrate to EU soon.
First, the EU is in a crisis triggered by the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty in the Irish referendum. Undoubtedly, this crisis does not create the environment for the enlargement talks, he said.
Second, there is a problem of Kosovo. About 20 EU states recognised its independence, which is strongly opposed by Belgrade.
Finally, Serbia's cooperation with the UN International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is a key issue determining Belgradeїs ties with the EU, he said.
"At least two countries, the Netherlands and Belgium, hesitate and point out that Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic need to be captured as well," Zwolski said.
Serbs are confident of the positive result of arrest of Karadzic. The professor of Institute for European Studies Miroslav Prokopijevic believes that the arrest of Karadzic will strongly influence the relationship Serbia/EU.
"It shows that the government is committed to finish collaboration with the Hague Tribunal, what is precondition for the implementation of the SAA," Prokopijevic said to Trend by e-mail.
According to expert, Nevertheless Serbs have to wait on further development of the relationship Serbia/EU, because in the past there were many stop-and-go moves.
Timothy William Waters, author of articles on the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, including Kosovo, is also confident that EU leaders have uniformly praised Serbia's action, which is clear if partial fulfillment of one of the conditions the EU has placed on the accession process, namely full cooperation with the ICTY.
"Karadzic's arrest therefore buys Serbia considerable goodwill with the EU, and was the arrest of General Ratko Mladic to follow soon, this would in effect remove that obstacle entirely. The process could then focus, as it properly should, on broader questions of Serbia's readiness to be a full economic, social, and political partner in the EU -- and it's possible that European relief over the removal of this obstacle will encourage considerable flexibility towards Serbia in the short term as well as on Serbia's attitude," Waters, associate professor at Indiana University School of Law, said to Trend by e-mail.
According to expert, not Europeans, but Serbs are ready for the EU integration soon. "Europe is greatly pleased by this turn of events, and many Serbs as well -- but many are not. but Karadzic's arrest and trial could further harden the sensibilities of the roughly one third of Serbs who consistently vote for the rejectionist Radicals, and this , especially in combination with events in Kosovo, could jeapordize the extremely fragile coalition's capacity to govern," expert said.
According to expert, those people are not reconciled to the European integration process, and will view this turn of events -- inasmuch as it is in effect or appearance a response to a demand by the EU -- as further proof that Serbia should look elsewhere.
"I think Karadzic's arrest will greatly improve EU-Serbian relations - certainly from the European side, and likely from the Serb side, unless the strong sentiment for European integration is in some way overcome by a rejectionist sentiment, which on balance I think unlikely," political expert said.
The President of Institute of National Strategy Remizov is sure that the arrest of Karadzic aims at Serbiaїs admission to EU. According to expert, the arrest of the Bosnian Serbs is obviously carried out by Belgrade to normalize relations with EU and to gain EU membership.
It shows that Serbiaїs joining EU will cost much from the moral viewpoint and it is due to the unilateral recognition of its moral defeat in the history of those conflicts which sparked in Yugoslaviaїs territory in the 1990s of the previous century, Remizov said.
"It is due to the cooperation with the obvious unjust Hague Tribunal which is especially painful after it issued acquittal for the Bosnian Muslims," the Russian political scientist said by e-mail on 25 July.
The Serbian expert Prokopijevic does not agree with Remizov. " The arrest simply happened, and it improves the relationship with the EU," he said.
One of the evidence for the improvement of relations between EU-Belgrade was the decision of the Serbian government to return back the ambassadors called back from EU after it recognized Kosovoїs independence. However, it will not concern countries not included in the Unified Europe.
"It is only the beginning of the insulting way to EU for Serbs," Remizov said.
The correspondent can be contacted at - [email protected]