BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov. 11
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Following a -1 mb/d deficit in 2021, the oil market is projected to shift to surpluses in 2022 and 2023 by 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).
Market uncertainty remains elevated throughout with the balance of risks favoring tighter market conditions in both years, reads the OIES report.
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies projects that global oil demand growth remains solid at 5.4 mb/d in 2021, 3.6 mb/d in 2022 and 2.1 mb/d in 2023.
“Oil switching in the near-term is expected to brush aside Delta concerns, while global demand growth in the medium run appears resilient in the face of some headwinds. We expect global oil demand to recover to 2019 levels in all quarters in 2022 and average 0.22 mb/d higher, before growing by another 2.1 mb/d in 2023,” the report says.
OIES notes that global oil supply is set to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2021, 5.9 mb/d in 2022 and 2.2 mb/d in 2023.
“The ability of OPEC+ to return full supplies as per their plan and US shale response dictate the outlook, as low investment hampers growth elsewhere. By the end of the OPEC+ deal producers are now estimated to remain 1.9 mb/d below the 5.76 mb/d target, while US underpins non-OPEC growth in both 2022 and 2023 by 0.8 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, respectively,” reads the report.
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