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Eurasia’s gas supply growth to moderate in 2022

Oil&Gas Materials 31 January 2022 12:28 (UTC +04:00)
Eurasia’s gas supply growth to moderate in 2022

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.31

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Following the strong increase in 2021, Eurasia’s gas supply growth is expected to moderate to below 1 percent in 2022, almost entirely driven by exports, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“This forecast assumes a return to average weather conditions and storage cycles in 2022. Consequently, deliveries to the domestic market (including storage injections) are expected to marginally decline compared to 2021. Russia’s net pipeline exports to Europe are expected to oscillate in the range of 170 to 180 bcm, while Central Asian pipeline deliveries to China are set to hover in the range of 40-45 bcm. Exports via Power of Siberia are set to ramp up to 15 bcm, while Azerbaijani flows to Europe via the TAP pipeline are expected to reach 10 bcm in 2022,” reads the report released by the agency.

IEA notes that LNG exports are foreseen to increase by 5 percent with the full ramp-up of Train 4 at Yamal LNG and the commissioning of Portavaya LNG.

The report shows that Eurasia’s natural gas production grew by an estimated 10 percent (or 90 bcm) y-o-y in 2021 – its largest annual increase since the fall of the Soviet Union.

“This strong growth was supported by high domestic demand, restocking needs and recovering exports. Central Asia’s pipeline deliveries to China increased by 12 percent y-o-y in the first 11 months of 2021, albeit remaining below their 2019 levels. The recovery was particularly strong in the second half of 2021, with export flows rising by 20 percent y-o-y between July and November, supported by a widening discount to spot LNG prices. Azeri gas production rose by close to 20 percent y-o-y in the first 11 months of 2021. Pipeline deliveries to Turkey fell by almost 30 percent, more than compensated by exports to the rest of Europe via the TAP pipeline, which rose to over 8 bcm. Ukraine’s domestic production declined by 2 percent y-o-y in 2021,” reads the report.

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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

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