BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 20. The global oil supply is anticipated to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2024, a decrease from the 1.5 mb/d projected for 2023, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
It is 500 kb/d lower than OIES’ previous estimate. The adjustments in the company’s forecast are a response to the announcements made by OPEC+ producers on November 30, where they decided to deepen voluntary production cuts in the first quarter of 2024.
As a result of these developments, the growth in OPEC-10 crude production has been revised downward by 560 kb/d, reaching -210 kb/d in 2024, in contrast to the earlier forecast of 360 kb/d. The eight OPEC+ producers implementing additional cuts, along with Russia, are expected to collectively reduce output by a total of 740 kb/d in January 2024. Notably, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan are responsible for 75% of these total cuts, based on their actual production levels in November 2023.
Since 2023, OPEC+ producers, including Russia, have committed to a total of 3.35 mb/d in collective and unilateral cuts. Of this, 1.69 mb/d could be unwound in 2024 post the first quarter, while the remaining 1.66 mb/d will persist until the end of the year. Despite these adjustments, the total OPEC crude production in 2024 is still expected to witness annual growth of 90 kb/d, compared to the previous forecast of 620 kb/d. This growth is primarily attributed to production increases from the exempt OPEC-3 countries, with Iran contributing +180 kb/d and Venezuela +120 kb/d.
The outlook for non-OPEC growth remains relatively stable at 940 kb/d, with increased crude production from the United States (+120 kb/d) and Brazil (+80 kb/d), offsetting downgrades in other regions. Additionally, the growth projection for NGLs and other liquids is raised by 50 kb/d to 280 kb/d for the year.
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