TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, December 25. The transport sector in Uzbekistan accounted for 25 percent of end-use sector emissions in 2019 and is expected to account for 32 percent by 2060, latest World Bank (WB) Uzbekistan Country Climate and Development Report says, Trend reports.
The World Bank observed that Uzbekistan, a doubly landlocked country, confronts high transportation costs that limit productivity, but it may integrate more fully into regional and global value chains by upgrading logistics services.
“Uzbekistan ranked 88th out of 160 countries in the recently issued 2023 International Logistics Performance Index. Further improvements in railway efficiency, improved cross-border operations, and strategically located logistics centers can reduce transport costs and increase competitiveness in foreign markets, particularly in sectors where Uzbekistan's comparative advantage is not fully exploited due to transportation costs barriers,” the reports says.
World Bank’s analysts note that, in addition to lowering logistics costs and increasing efficiency, this can help consolidating the rail competitiveness over long hauling distances (for certain commodities) against a more carbon-intensive trucking sector.
“As natural gas availability in Uzbekistan is said to shrink toward 2060, the transport sector shifts to a reliance on oil and electricity in the reference scenario and to electricity and hydrogen in the ‘Net Zero by 2060’ scenario. The transport sector accounted for 25 percent of end-use sector emissions in 2019 and is expected to account for 32 percent by 2060 in the reference scenario.
Along with industry, the transport sector is the last to decarbonize in the NZ2060 scenario. Electrification of transport in the NZ2060 scenario is accompanied by energy efficiency gains of close to 50 percent arising from dramatically increased vehicle power conversion efficiency compared with internal combustion engines,” WB added.
The report stresses that the key drivers of transport sector decarbonization in the NZ2060 scenario include rising fuel efficiency standards and their enforcement, electrification of passenger road and rail transport, a shift to hydrogen for freight, a shift from individual to public transport, and urban design for walkable cities.
“In 2019, the transport consumption mix consisted mainly of natural gas (54 percent) and oil (44 percent). In the NZ2060 scenario, gas use drops to 42 percent by 2035, 20 percent by 2050, and 2 percent by 2060. Grid electricity rises from 2 percent to 25 percent of consumption by 2040 and 82 percent by 2060. Hydrogen accounts for 5 percent of transport consumption in 2045, climbing to 16 percent by 2060. Biofuels play an insignificant role in both scenarios because of lack of land and water for biofuel production in Uzbekistan,” the WB’s experts noted.